Finamex: It’s a Fine Time to Cross the Border – Mexico the Emerged Market of Growth

In January of this year the theme of emerging markets became more of a primary investment rather than that of an alternative one. Many people ventured toward countries that have had rocket high growth over the last few years such as the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China which received the preponderance of excitement in the emerging market approach.

Read full article Mexico the Growth Market

Today, the BRIC countries have been challenged to maintain upward momentum. The simmering down of the American market crisis and the expanding concerns for the Eurozone present a dilemma and are showing the effects. The Institute of International Finance (IIF), a global association of financial institutions, says that “net private capital flows to emerging market economies remain quite volatile and subject to disturbance from the euro area”. According to the research, data capital flows fell in 2011 to $1.03 trillion from $1.09 trillion in 2010 and are expected to fall again this year to $912 billion before rising to $994 billion in 2013.

The woes of the Eurozone monetary crisis have influenced investors to move money out of country and to seek safe haven in securities markets elsewhere. Brazil, Indonesia, China as well as others are no longer experiencing upward momentum and are now even in decline or negative.

However year after year, analysts continue to see strong signs of growth and long term prosperity in Mexico as many of the emerging markets troubles are not being seen in Mexico, in fact quite the opposite.

Brazil with its lucrative energy industry capitalized by the largest South American exchange, has attracted many investors to seek opportunities in Latin America. Brazil has enjoyed the influx of foreign investments and has gone further to encourage more interest from the North by recently lowering some of its staggeringly high tax penalties on returns and additionally allowing the shares of foreign instruments to take more of a part in portfolios of its domestic shareholders. “Investors are more cautious with Brazil,” Gustavo Mendonca, an economist with Oren Investimentos in Sao Paulo said this week. “The country has slowed very sharply and the prospects for long-term growth have gone downhill.”

Policy adjustments invite and attract investments, but many of these actions are late and under pressure by issues developing in other countries such as Spain. On the other hand, the opportunities for a rudimental Northern investor looking South of the Border to Mexico remain solid.

A key factor with Mexico is that it has  some of the most definitive metrics that provide the level of transparency needed in a volatile global market.  Unlike Brazil, Russia, India or China, Mexico is directly tied to American monetary policy with a correlation that does not exist in other Emerging Market countries and not surprisingly is also growing alongside the American economy.

Is Mexico beyond ridicule and examination? Of course not, but to begin to understand the benefits of investing in Mexico for the short and the long term we should begin with how Mexico plays a key role as a member of NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement). The implementation of NAFTA along with close inter-country relationships, ties Mexico’s trade and currency valuation to that of the US and Canada.

 For example, in 2010 many believed the US would remain flat for the next two years, but we now see this was not the case. As a result of American performance, Mexico’s markets have also increased working in parallel a framework portfolio managers find affirmative Mexico has also maintained a weak peso over the last ten years. The Mexican peso has been priced at a competitive advantage with China.

 Currency rates have helped Mexico realize an economic boom that continues to rise since the 90’s. The move to NAFTA in 1994 could be the key contributing factor for Mexico’s 600 percent increase in sales to the US. With inflation no longer under control in countries like China and  Brazil, analysts are discovering that Mexico’s policies have proven successful in weathering many global financial catastrophes.

…..

As opportunities within the developed markets diminish, the Mexican marketplace is standing strong. As a top emerging market for the global investing community, particularly in Latin America, Mexico represents a substantial alternative to Brazil, home of the leading Latin American stock market. Mexico, although not a BRIC country, certainly has more promising economic stability and growth potential than some of the most mature economies. With a clear goal in sight, the local markets in Mexico continue to take measures that enhance liquidity in equities and derivatives trading which provide surety to its financial institutions and reach more investors abroad.

Source: FINAMEX /Dan Watkins, 01.08.2012  dwatkins@cc-speed.com

Filed under: Asia, BMV - Mexico, Brazil, China, Exchanges, Latin America, Mexico, News, Trading Technology, Asia, BMV Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, Brazil, BRIC, China 中国, Dan Watkins, DMA Direct Market Access, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Exchanges, Finamex, Financial Crisis, Inflation, Investment, Latin America, MexDer, Mexico, Order Routing, Risk Management, Trade Connectivity

Every Chinese Province bankrupt like Greece – Host Says Chinese Regime nearly bankrupt

China’s economy has a reputation for being strong and prosperous, but according to a well-known Chinese television personality the country’s Gross Domestic Product is going in reverse.

Larry Lang, chair professor of Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said in a lecture that he didn’t think was being recorded that the Chinese regime is in a serious economic crisis—on the brink of bankruptcy. In his memorable formulation: every province in China is Greece.

Related Article:

Bobsguide – China reduces lenders’ ratio requirements (02.12.2011)

EpochTimes – China’s Economy on the Brink of Collaps (Nov.2011)

The Guardian – IMF sounds warning  on Chinese Banking System (Nov.2011)

 

The restrictions Lang placed on the Oct. 22 speech in Shenyang City, in northern China’s Liaoning Province, included no audio or video recording, and no media. He can be heard saying that people should not post his speech online, or “everyone will look bad,” in the audio that is now on Youtube. 

In the unusual, closed-door lecture, Lang gave a frank analysis of the Chinese economy and the censorship that is placed on intellectuals and public figures. “What I’m about to say is all true. But under this system, we are not allowed to speak the truth,” he said.

Despite Lang’s polished appearance on his high-profile TV shows, he said: “Don’t think that we are living in a peaceful time now. Actually the media cannot report anything at all. Those of us who do TV shows are so miserable and frustrated, because we cannot do any programs. As long as something is related to the government, we cannot report about it.”

He said that the regime doesn’t listen to experts, and that Party officials are insufferably arrogant. “If you don’t agree with him, he thinks you are against him,” he said.

Lang’s assessment that the regime is bankrupt was based on five conjectures.

Firstly, that the regime’s debt sits at about 36 trillion yuan (US$5.68 trillion). This calculation is arrived at by adding up Chinese local government debt (between 16 trillion and 19.5 trillion yuan, or US$2.5 trillion and US$3 trillion), and the debt owed by state-owned enterprises (another 16 trillion, he said). But with interest of two trillion per year, he thinks things will unravel quickly.

Secondly, that the regime’s officially published inflation rate of 6.2 percent is fabricated. The real inflation rate is 16 percent, according to Lang.

Thirdly, that there is serious excess capacity in the economy, and that private consumption is only 30 percent of economic activity. Lang said that beginning this July, the Purchasing Managers Index, a measure of the manufacturing industry, plunged to a new low of 50.7. This is an indication, in his view, that China’s economy is in recession.

Fourthly, that the regime’s officially published GDP of 9 percent is also fabricated. According to Lang’s data, China’s GDP has decreased 10 percent. He said that the bloated figures come from the dramatic increase in infrastructure construction, including real estate development, railways, and highways each year (accounting for up to 70 percent of GDP in 2010).

Fifthly, that taxes are too high. Last year, the taxes on Chinese businesses (including direct and indirect taxes) were at 70 percent of earnings. The individual tax rate sits at 81.6 percent, Lang said.

Once the “economic tsunami” starts, the regime will lose credibility and China will become the poorest country in the world, Lang said.

Several commentators have expressed broad agreement with Lang’s analysis.

Professor Frank Xie at the University of South Carolina, Aiken, said that the idea of China going bankrupt isn’t far fetched. Major construction projects have helped inflate the GDP, he says. “On the surface, it is a big number, but inflation is even higher. So in reality, China’s economy is in recession.”

Further, Xie said that official figures shouldn’t be relied on. The regime’s vice premier, Li Keqiang for example, admitted to a U.S. diplomat that he doesn’t believe the statistics produced by lower-level officials, and when he was the governor of Liaoning Province “had to personally see the hard data.”

Cheng Xiaonong, an economist and former aide to ousted Party leader Zhao Ziyang, said that high praise of the “China model” is often made on the basis of the high-visibility construction projects, a big GDP, and much money in foreign reserves. “They pay little attention to things such as whether people’s basic rights are guaranteed, or their living standard has improved or not,” he said.

Behind the fiat control of the economy, which can have the appearance of being efficient, there is enormous waste and corruption, Cheng said. It means that little spending is done on education, welfare, the health system, etc.

Cheng says that for the last decade the Chinese regime has accumulated its wealth primarily by promoting real estate development, buying urban and suburban residential properties at low prices (or simply taking them), and selling them to developers at high prices.

According to Cheng, the goals of regime officials (to enrich themselves and increase their power) are in direct conflict with those of the people–so social injustice expands, and economic propaganda meant to portray the situation as otherwise prevails.

Few scholars inside the country dare to speak as Lang has, Cheng said. And that’s probably because he has a professorship in Hong Kong.

Source: TheEpochTimes, 15.11.2011

Filed under: Asia, Banking, China, News, Risk Management, Asia, Banking, Black Swan, Cheng Xiaonong, China 中国, Credit Crisis, Economic Crisis, Financial Crisis, Inflation, Larry Lang, Performance Report, Risk Management

Brazil mysterious interest rate cuts & proposed Euro Rescue package… cause to worry?

Who sets interest rates in Brazil: Is it Central Bank President Alexandre Tombini or the country’s President, Dilma Rousseff? That question hung over financial markets after the Central Bank of Brazil cut the benchmark Selic interest rate by half a point, to 12 percent, on Aug. 31. The move was unexpected: The bank’s rate-setting committee had ratcheted up the Selic at its five previous meetings to combat inflation and had not signaled a change in its stance. Yet Rousseff in an Aug. 30 radio broadcast had said rates should begin to fall as the government curbs spending.

(Interestingly a week later Guido Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister, suddenly proposed a “Bric” rescue package for the eurozone this week, he caught not only other world leaders by surprise but also many of his fellow countrymen.

Even as officials from other members of the so-called Bric grouping – Russia, India and China – said it was the first they heard of the idea, many ordinary Brazilians expressed shock at the notion of bailing out the world’s richest trading bloc. FT 16.09.2011)

The abruptness of the shift in monetary policy left money managers such as Guilherme Figueiredo, director of M. Safra, a São Paulo investment firm, with the impression that Tombini had caved in to political pressure. “This is the worst possible decision our central bank could have made at such a moment,” Figueiredo says. “The loss of credibility is going to be large.” Rousseff’s press office declined to comment when asked about the rate decision.

New data indicate that Tombini may have acted prematurely. On Sept. 6, Brazil’s statistics agency said inflation accelerated to an annualized 7.23 percent in August—its fastest pace since 2005 and well above the 6.5 percent upper end of the target range set by monetary authorities for the full year. In an Aug. 31 statement the central bank defended the rate cut, saying it will help shield the economy from the effects of a “substantial deterioration” in the world growth outlook.

It’s true that Brazil shows signs of cooling. The central bank’s economic activity index shrank in June for the first time since 2008, and business confidence in the second quarter slid to its lowest level since 2009. Economists expect growth to slow to 3.7 percent this year, from 7.5 percent in 2010.

Finance Minister Guido Mantega has pledged that the government won’t resort to fiscal stimulus to spur the economy. Whether Rousseff, who took office on Jan. 1, can discipline the spending habits of the multiparty ruling coalition remains an open question, however. Congress rebelled against her first attempts at frugality by proposing bigger salaries for police officers and an increase in health-care spending. Cutting rates in these circumstances “is really risky, with inflation building and wages set to rise,” says Elson Teles, chief economist at Maxima Asset Management in Rio de Janeiro. The central bank is “weighing such subjective things like whether there’s going to be another global recession. What if it doesn’t happen?”

The bottom line: Brazil’s central bank may have bowed to government pressure for a rate cut, endangering its goal of containing inflation.

Source: Bloomberg, 08. 09.2011is a reporter for Bloomberg News.  Ragir   Bristow is a reporter for Bloomberg News.

Filed under: Brazil, News, Risk Management, Brazil, Brazilian Monetary Council (Conselho Monetário Nacional - CMN), Brazilian Real, Debt Crisis, Europe, Financial Crisis, Inflation, Interest Rates

Brazil to increase primary surplus and make room for interest rates cut – prepares for global slowdown

Brazil plans to further contain government spending this year to prepare the country for a global slowdown and make room for a cut in interest rates, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said on Monday.

The government raised its target for the 2011 budget surplus before interest payments to 91 billion Real (57 billion dollars) from 81.7 billion Real, Mantega told reporters in Brasilia.

Brazil joins countries from Mexico to Turkey in signalling that rate cuts may be on the horizon as global growth sputters and a debt crisis in Europe worsens.

“It makes it viable in the medium- or long-term to cut interest rates,” Mantega said. “As you reduce or stop increasing public spending, you open space for a reduction in interest rates when the central bank thinks it is possible.”

The central bank’s board of directors, led by President Alexandre Tombini, begins its August policy meeting Tuesday, with inflation above 7% for the first time since 2005. Traders are wagering that policy makers will cut rates a quarter-point this week, and between 0.75 and 1 percentage point by year-end, as the economy shows signs of cooling and the global recovery falters.

Mantega said he sees no immediate need for monetary stimulus and added that inflation is a permanent concern for President Dilma Rousseff’s government.

Mexico policy makers kept the benchmark rate at a record low 4.5% for the 21st consecutive meeting on Aug. 26 and said they would consider adjusting it if the national or global economic outlook worsens. The Turkish central bank also left its benchmark rate unchanged on Aug. 23 and Governor Erdem Basci said the institution may have to loosen monetary policy. Peru and Chile also held rates this month.

Brazil’s budget surplus (before interest payments) widened in July to a record for the month pushing the year-to-date total to almost 80% of the 2011 target.

The so-called primary surplus, which includes federal and local governments as well as state companies, last month rose to 13.8 billion Real from 13.4 billion Real in June. The government earlier this year cut 50.7 billion Real from its 2011 budget.

Brazil’s economic activity shrank in June for the first time since December, 2008. Industrial production fell 1.6% in June the second-biggest drop in output since 2008, and business confidence in the second quarter fell to its lowest level since 2009.

Source: Merco Press-South Atlantic News Agency, 30.08.2011

Filed under: Brazil, Events, Mexico, News, Risk Management, Brazil, Chile, Credit Crisis, Currency, Debt Crisis, Financial Crisis, FX Foreign Exchange, Interest Rates, Mexico, Peru

China: BlackRock – Puede el ahorro de China salvar al mundo?

China ha experimentado en años recientes un rápido crecimiento impulsado por el crédito, el cual ha sido un factor importante en la recuperación económica global. Sin embargo:

• Muchos analistas anticipan que la rápida condición del crecimiento chino gracias al crédito, junto con un proceso de distribución de capital dirigido por sus políticos y emprendido a tasas de interés altamente subsidiadas, inevitablemente derivará en una caída crediticia.
• Estos comentarios señalan la naturaleza opaca del sistema bancario de China, una rápida exposición de las hojas de balance y un sector inmobiliario inflado, como la evidencia de un sistema financiero frágil susceptible a una crisis que, a su vez, afectará el crecimiento mundial y a otros sistemas financieros.

  Opiniones del BlackRock Investment Institute: ¿Puede el Ahorro de China Salvar al Mundo?

• En la nueva publicación del BlackRock Investment Institute, “¿Puede el ahorro de China salvar al mundo? (Can China Savers Save the World?)”, los autores analizan las razones que están en la base de estos temores. Al respecto, afirman que esta inquietud podría estar basada en un análisis débil.
• Asimismo, creen que los llamados “pandas” no consideran el hecho de que gran parte de la expansión de la balanza financiera de China se ha basado en préstamos casi fiscales y que tienen el respaldo y garantía de un sistema que experimenta un rápido crecimiento de su ingreso y cuenta con un nivel bajo de deuda.
• En consecuencia, los autores sugieren que China no sufrirá un colapso financiero, sino a lo sumo un descenso en su potencial y en su tasa de crecimiento.

Adjunto te hacemos llegar el documento completo en inglés en formato PDF. En caso de cualquier duda adicional, quedamos a tu disposición.

Para leer el reporte completo click aqui.  Can China´s Savers save the world

Source: Black Rock / Carral Sierra, 12.07.2011

Filed under: China, News, Risk Management, Black Swan, BlackRock, China 中国, Currency, ETF, Financial Crisis, Fund Industry, FX Foreign Exchange, Inflation, Market Analysis, NPL Non Performing Loan, Performance Report, Real Estate, Retail Investors

Why and How to Start a Data Governance Program

The ancient proverb “May you live in interesting times” was really underscored during 2010. In fact, the year offered some great examples of the increasing need for data governance in both the public and private sectors.

According to the Associate Press, he Federal Aviation Administration is missing key information on who owns 119,000 private and commercial aircraft in the U.S. – a gap the agency fears could be exploited by terrorists and drug traffickers.

Bloomberg BusinessWeek reported that TUI Travel, Europe’s largest tour operator, said it accepted the resignation of its CFO after having to restate its 2009 results. The tour operator said it wrote off $185 million after faults in integrating computer systems following a 2007 merger.

And finally, in an interesting paper by Louise Francis and Virginia Prevosto, Data and Disaster: The Role of Data in the Financial Crisis, the authors stated, “Since 2007 a global financial crisis has been unfolding. The crisis was initially caused by defaults on subprime loans, aided and abetted by pools of asset-backed securities and credit derivatives, but corporate defaults, such as that of Lehman Brothers, and outright fraud have also contributed to the crisis.  We use the Madoff fraud and the mortgage meltdown as data quality case studies. We conclude that data quality issues have made a significant contribution to the global financial crisis.”

While your company may not have data governance horror stories on this scale, undoubtedly there are plenty of cases of bad decisions, missed revenue opportunities and increased costs due to silos that have sprung up between business units. These may include:

• Inefficient processes due to bad quality data.
• Systemic problems due to improperly integrated systems passing bad information to one another.
• Poorly trained data entry personnel unwittingly entering incomplete data.
• Problems complying with government regulations brought on by fragmented or inconsistent information.

Problems like this are remarkably common across the corporate landscape. Data governance maturity models generally have five levels and are modeled on Software Engineering Institute’s Capability Maturity Model. A recent survey sponsored by Kalido found that only 10 percent of organizations have been able to move their data governance programs beyond the lowest two levels of data governance maturity. This shows most companies haven’t gotten very far in their data governance efforts or are just getting started.

So if your company is in this position – increasingly aware of the need for data governance but not very far along the data governance maturity scale – how do you make tangible progress in a short time?

Suggestions For Getting Started

1. Avoid “analysis paralysis.” Since many organizations don’t know where to start, they stall and won’t do anything.
2. Make sure everyone realizes that although technology is important, it will at best be an enabler. It’s not a silver bullet. You can’t just implement data governance technology. You’re going to need a comprehensive program involving organizational changes, process redesign and intensive work on information quality (and yes, some technology).
3. Use one of the many data governance maturity models to baseline your current situation and to describe your desired future state. This will provide a framework for planning your activities and managing everyone’s expectations. Define: a) where you are now, b) where you want to be, and c) how fast you want to get there.
4. Start to look at project dimensions for master data management, data integration, data quality and data governance over that time period. This should lead to a realistic data governance roadmap.
5. Don’t start before you receive executive sponsorship and funding for your data governance organization. If you begin without high-level support, you’ll end up with a failed effort that must be explained later.

Spend Time on the Design Before Launching

Each company is different, so your data governance program should be tailored to how your company is structured and aligned with your corporate culture. There are a lot of moving parts in a data governance initiative; working from an understood design is a lot easier than making it up as you go along.

Make sure you plan for (and address in your program) all of the important aspects that come together in a data governance initiative:

Organizational design, including the organizational model, leadership and staffing. Where will the data governance function live and who pays for it?

• Executive sponsorship, corporate culture and organizational change management.
• Communications strategy. Create an internal campaign to support the data governance program.
• Data governance lifecycle, including the design and implementation of new data governance processes.
• Information quality. Build or incorporate a data quality function into the data governance program.
• Technology. Implement the various types of supporting technologies required to enable a robust data governance program.
• This should give you the sense for what is involved in starting a data governance program in a large corporation.

Don’t let challenges dissuade you – in the long run, not tackling data governance is far worse, since your enterprise is at risk of being a 2011 horror story. So dig in and start the hard work of governing your enterprise data. Don’t forget, if it’s done properly, data governance can produce new revenue, cost savings and more efficient processes for your company.

Source: Information Management Magazine, 03/01/2011 by Dan Power

Filed under: Corporate Action, Data Management, Market Data, News, Reference Data, Standards, BI Business Intelligence, Data Management, Data Strategy, Financial Crisis, Fraud, Governance, Meta Data, Reference Data, Risk Management

Data and Disaster: The Role of Data in the Financial Crisis

Motivation: Since 2007 a global financial crisis has been unfolding. The crisis was initially caused by defaults on subprime loans, aided and abetted by pools of asset-backed securities and credit derivatives, but corporate defaults, such as that of Lehman Brothers, and outright fraud have also contributed to the crisis. Little research has been published investigating the role of data issues in various aspects of the financial crisis. In this paper we illustrate how data that was available to underwriters, credit agencies, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and fund managers could have been used to detect the problems that led to the financial crisis.

Francis_Prevosto: Data and Disaster: The Role of Data in the Financial Crisis

Method: In this paper we show that data quality played a significant role in the mispricing and business intelligence errors that caused the crisis. We utilize a number of relatively simple statistics to illustrate the due diligence that should have, but was not performed. We use the Madoff fraud and the mortgage meltdown as data quality case studies. We apply simple exploratory procedures to illustrate simple techniques that could have been used to detect problems. We also illustrate some modeling methods that could have been used to help underwrite mortgages and find indications of fraud.

Results: In both the Madoff fraud and the mortgage crisis a number of statistical tests could have been applied to uncover fraud and to provide a warning of the deterioration of the quality of mortgages underwritten.

Conclusions: Data quality issues made a significant contribution to the global financial crisis.

Source: Casulty Actuarial  Society, May 2010

Filed under: Data Management, News, Reference Data, Risk Management, Standards, Data Management, Data Strategy, Financial Crisis, Fraud, Meta Data, Performance Report, Reference Data, Risk Management

10 Trends for 2011 by Gerald Celente

After the tumultuous years of the Great Recession, a battered people may wish that 2011 will bring a return to kinder, gentler times. But that is not what we are predicting. Instead, the fruits of government and institutional action – and inaction – on many fronts will ripen in unplanned-for fashions.

Trends we have previously identified, and that have been brewing for some time, will reach maturity in 2011, impacting just about everyone in the world.

1. Wake-Up Call In 2011, the people of all nations will fully recognize how grave economic conditions have become, how ineffectual and self-serving the so-called solutions have been, and how dire the consequences will be. Having become convinced of the inability of leaders and know-it-all “arbiters of everything” to fulfill their promises, the people will do more than just question authority, they will defy authority. The seeds of revolution will be sown….

2. Crack-Up 2011 Among our Top Trends for last year was the “Crash of 2010.” What happened? The stock market didn’t crash. We know. We made it clear in our Autumn Trends Journal that we were not forecasting a stock market crash – the equity markets were no longer a legitimate indicator of recovery or the real state of the economy. Yet the reliable indicators (employment numbers, the real estate market, currency pressures, sovereign debt problems) all bordered between crisis and disaster. In 2011, with the arsenal of schemes to prop them up depleted, we predict “Crack-Up 2011”: teetering economies will collapse, currency wars will ensue, trade barriers will be erected, economic unions will splinter, and the onset of the “Greatest Depression” will be recognized by everyone….

3. Screw the People As times get even tougher and people get even poorer, the “authorities” will intensify their efforts to extract the funds needed to meet fiscal obligations. While there will be variations on the theme, the governments’ song will be the same: cut what you give, raise what you take.

4. Crime Waves No job + no money + compounding debt = high stress, strained relations, short fuses. In 2011, with the fuse lit, it will be prime time for Crime Time. When people lose everything and they have nothing left to lose, they lose it. Hardship-driven crimes will be committed across the socioeconomic spectrum by legions of the on-the-edge desperate who will do whatever they must to keep a roof over their heads and put food on the table….

5. Crackdown on Liberty As crime rates rise, so will the voices demanding a crackdown. A national crusade to “Get Tough on Crime” will be waged against the citizenry. And just as in the “War on Terror,” where “suspected terrorists” are killed before proven guilty or jailed without trial, in the “War on Crime” everyone is a suspect until proven innocent….

6. Alternative Energy In laboratories and workshops unnoticed by mainstream analysts, scientific visionaries and entrepreneurs are forging a new physics incorporating principles once thought impossible, working to create devices that liberate more energy than they consume. What are they, and how long will it be before they can be brought to market? Shrewd investors will ignore the “can’t be done” skepticism, and examine the newly emerging energy trend opportunities that will come of age in 2011….

7. Journalism 2.0 Though the trend has been in the making since the dawn of the Internet Revolution, 2011 will mark the year that new methods of news and information distribution will render the 20^th century model obsolete. With its unparalleled reach across borders and language barriers, “Journalism 2.0” has the potential to influence and educate citizens in a way that governments and corporate media moguls would never permit. Of the hundreds of trends we have forecast over three decades, few have the possibility of such far-reaching effects….

8. Cyberwars Just a decade ago, when the digital age was blooming and hackers were looked upon as annoying geeks, we forecast that the intrinsic fragility of the Internet and the vulnerability of the data it carried made it ripe for cyber-crime and cyber-warfare to flourish. In 2010, every major government acknowledged that Cyberwar was a clear and present danger and, in fact, had already begun. The demonstrable effects of Cyberwar and its companion, Cybercrime, are already significant – and will come of age in 2011. Equally disruptive will be the harsh measures taken by global governments to control free access to the web, identify its users, and literally shut down computers that it considers a threat to national security….

9. Youth of the World Unite University degrees in hand yet out of work, in debt and with no prospects on the horizon, feeling betrayed and angry, forced to live back at home, young adults and 20-somethings are mad as hell, and they’re not going to take it anymore. Filled with vigor, rife with passion, but not mature enough to control their impulses, the confrontations they engage in will often escalate disproportionately. Government efforts to exert control and return the youth to quiet complacency will be ham-fisted and ineffectual. The Revolution will be televised … blogged, YouTubed, Twittered and….

10. End of The World! The closer we get to 2012, the louder the calls will be that the “End is Near!” There have always been sects, at any time in history, that saw signs and portents proving the end of the world was imminent. But 2012 seems to hold a special meaning across a wide segment of “End-time” believers. Among the Armageddonites, the actual end of the world and annihilation of the Earth in 2012 is a matter of certainty. Even the rational and informed that carefully follow the news of never-ending global crises, may sometimes feel the world is in a perilous state. Both streams of thought are leading many to reevaluate their chances for personal survival, be it in heaven or on earth….

See also http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html

Source: Gerald Celente, Trendsresearch, 18.12.2010

Filed under: Banking, Energy & Environment, News, Risk Management, Services, Wealth Management, 2012, Alternative Energy Markets, Capital Markets, Confidence Crisis, Currency, Currency Crisis, Cyperwar, Economic Crisis, Financial Crisis, Forecast 2011, FX Foreign Exchange, Gerald Celente, Pronósticos 2011, Risk Management, Sector Energias Alternativas, Social Crisis, Wind Energy

BlackRock Bob Dolls: 10 prediction for the next 10 years

“10 Predictions for the Next 10 Years” by BlackRock’s Bob Doll and what it means to investors:

1. U.S. equities experience high single-digit percentage total returns after the worst decade since the 1930s.
2. Recessions occur more frequently during this decade than only once a decade as occurred in the last 20 years.
3. Healthcare, information technology and energy alternatives are leading growth areas for the U.S.
4. The U.S. dollar continues to be less dominant as the decade progresses.
5. Interest rates move irregularly higher in the developing world.
6. Country self-interest leads to more trade and political conflicts.
7. An aging and declining population gives Europe some of Japan’s problems.
8. World growth is led by emerging market consumers.
9. Emerging markets weighting in global indices rises significantly.
10. China’s economic and political ascent continues.
    

Read Bob Doll’s full report  10 Predictions for the next Decade

Source:BlackRock / Carral Sierra, 02.08.2010

Filed under: Banking, Brazil, China, Energy & Environment, Japan, Korea, Mexico, News, Risk Management, Wealth Management, Alternative Energy Markets, Asia, BlackRock, Capital Markets, China 中国, Clean Technology, Currency, Currency Crisis, Emerging Markets, Energy, Europe, Financial Crisis, Forecast 2011, FX Foreign Exchange, Investment, Japan, Latin America, Politics, Pronósticos, Recession, Risk Management, Trade, USA

China: The collapse of the Asian growth model

Over the last three decades there has been a dramatic shift in the stance of development policy with import-substitution being replaced by the export-led growth. A significant concern with this latter model is that it may risk turning global growth into a zero-sum game. This can happen if one country’s export growth comes by poaching of domestic demand elsewhere or by displacing exports of other countries.

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China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble, Chanos, Faber, Rogoff Say

Rather than focusing on production for domestic markets, countries were advised to focus on production for export. This shift away from import-substitution toward the export-led growth was driven significantly by the economic troubles that emerged in the 1970s. At that time many developing countries, who had prospered under regimes of import-substitution, began to experience slower growth and accelerated inflation.

This led to claims that the import-substitution model had exhausted itself, and that the easy possibilities for growth by substitution had been used up.second factor fostering adoption of the export-led model was the shift in intellectual outlook amongst economists in favor of market directed economic activity. Import-substitution requires government provided tariff and quota protections, and economists increasingly came to portray these measures as economic distortions that contribute to productive inefficiency and rent seeking.

The shift in policy stance was also propelled by the empirical fact of Japan’s spectacular success in growing its economy in the twenty five years after World War II, and by the subsequent growth success of the four east Asian “tiger” economies – South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. All of these economies relied on increased exports.

The problem is that the export-led growth model suffers from a fallacy of composition whereby it assumes that all countries can grow by relying on demand growth in other countries. When the model is applied globally in a demand-constrained world, there is a danger of a beggar-thy-neighbor outcome in which all try to grow on the backs of demand expansion in other countries, and the result is global excess supply and deflation. In this connection, it is not exporting per se that is the problem, but rather making exports the focus of development. Countries will still need to export to pay for their imported capital and intermediate goods needs, but exporting should be organized so as to maximize its contribution to domestic development and not viewed as an end in itself.

Export led growth model prompts countries to shift ever more output onto global markets, and in doing so aggravates the long-standing trend deterioration in developing country terms of trade. This pattern partakes of a vicious cycle since declining terms of trade and falling prices compel developing countries to export even more, thereby compounding the downward price pressure. This vicious cycle has long been visible for producers of primary commodities. However, as a result of the transfer of manufacturing capacity to developing countries who lack the consumer markets to buy their own output, the same process may now be present in all but highest-end manufacturing.

In the 1950’s, Western opinion leaders found themselves both impressed and frightened by the extraordinary growth rates achieved by an Eastern economy, although it was still substantially poorer and smaller than those of the West.

The speed with which it had transformed itself from a peasant society into an industrial powerhouse, and it’s perceived ability to achieve growth rates several times higher than the advanced nations, seemed to call into question the dominance not only of Western power but of Western ideology.

The leaders of that nation did not share Western faith in free markets or unlimited civil liberties. They asserted with increasing self-confidence that their system was superior: societies that accepted strong, even authoritarian governments and are willing to limit individual liberties in the interest of the common good, take charge of their economies, and sacrifice short-run consumer interests for the sake of long-run growth that would eventually outperform the increasingly chaotic societies of the West.

China’s economic growth has averaged 9pc a year over the past 10 years, compared with a paltry 1.9pc for the British economy. Last year, despite the credit crunch, China posted a remarkable growth rate of 10.7pc against a British contraction of 3.2pc.some are extrapolating present trends forward, and proclaiming that China will usurp the United States as the world’s largest economy.

However, in the absence of expanding foreign demand for its exports, it has instead come to rely on a massive surge in domestic bank lending to fuel its growth rate. When measured relative to the size of its economy, the 27pc point jump in bank loans to GDP is unprecedented; at no point in history has a nation ever attempted such an incredible increase in state-directed bank lending.

This appetite for cheap Chinese exports, which had at one point seemed insatiable, means that the West has come to owe China over 2 trillion $. China has become the world’s biggest creditor, but creditor nations running persistent trade surpluses has two historical examples. The US economy in the Twenties and the Japanese economy in the Eighties.

In both of the previous examples a failure to allow exchange rates to adjust to the new reality created a large speculative pool of credit that, in turn, led to overvalued domestic assets and, eventually, an economic crisis.

The banks in China are lending money at breakneck speed, but China’s state planners have favoured investment over consumption. High-speed rail networks, first-class infrastructure projects and the urban migration of 55 million people every year are common explanations for the ability of the nimble Chinese to overcome the frailties of this global economy. But the goal of economic policy, is to maximise households’ wellbeing and consumption. Unfortunately, and China’s share of consumption within its economy has fallen relentlessly, reaching 35pc of GDP in 2008.

In China, investment spending has tripled since 2001 and the consequences are staggering. A country that represents just 7pc of global GDP is now responsible for 30pc of global aluminum consumption, 47pc of global steel consumption and 40pc of global copper consumption. The overriding problem is that the Chinese model leads to a deflationary spiral that is perpetual in nature. Domestic consumption never grows fast enough to absorb the supply, prompting the planners to commit to ever-higher levels of investment. Over-capacity inevitably plagues many sectors of the economy and Chinese profitability is already low.

The story in China has been one of imperiled, marginally profitable enterprises relying on generous state-provided incentives for utilities, credit, etc. now having to deal with slowing global demand. The drying up of trade finance isn’t helping, either. The giant stimulus worldwide, and especially in China, helped the world economy for one year but that has now dried up.

Source and full article at  Israel Financial Experts, 08.06. 2010,

Filed under: Asia, China, Energy & Environment, Hong Kong, News, Risk Management, Asia, Asia Strategy, Black Swan, Capital Markets, China 中国, Commodities, Confidence Crisis, Currency, Currency Crisis, Economic Crisis, Financial Crisis, Forecast 2011, FX Foreign Exchange, Hong Kong, Japan, Kenneth Rogoff, Marc Faber, Pronósticos, Real Estate, Risk Management, SinoRock

Charles River Expands Brazil and Latin America Presence

Charles River Development has expanded its regional presence in Sao Paulo, Brazil with local, multi-lingual employees providing implementation, consulting and support services for regional clients and prospects.

In a company statement, Manuel Astiasaran, Director of Operations in Latin America for Charles River, said, “Our expanding client base reflects Latin America’s changing regulatory climate. Heavy regulation limiting investment to domestic securities has been relaxed, such as the 2009 regulation from Brazil’s Commisso de Valores Mobilirios, making way for international investments. This has increased buy-side demand for front- to middle-office systems that automate domestic and international investment operations.”

The Charles River Investment Managing System (IMS) is available in Portuguese and Spanish and supports region-specific security types and workflows, including Mexican corporate and government bonds, as well as Brazil’s CDI-linked debentures and complex inflation-linked government notes.

The Charles River IMS includes pre-built compliance libraries with rules across 35 regulatory bodies in 20 countries, including rule libraries for Mexico, Brazil and Chile.

Source: Advanced Trading, 06.04.2010

Filed under: BM&FBOVESPA, BMV - Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Latin America, Mexico, News, Risk Management, Trading Technology, BM&FBOVESPA, BMV Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, Brazil, Charles River, DMA Direct Market Access, Financial Crisis, Governance, Mexico, Reference Data, Risk Management, Trade Connectivity, Trading Network

Trading Technologies and BM&FBOVESPA Agree to Expand TT’s Presence in Brazil

Trading Technologies International, Inc. (TT), the leading provider of order-entry software and solutions for professional derivatives traders, and BM&FBOVESPA, Latin America’s largest exchange, announced on 12 April 2010 that they have entered into a partnership to provide direct access to BM&FBOVESPA’s new multi-asset class platform via TT’s X_TRADER® platform.

TT’s direct connection to BM&FBOVESPA will provide traders from anywhere in the world with access to the exchange through TT’s X_TRADER® platform. The new connection will provide TT’s customers with access to the main derivatives contracts listed on the exchange, including:

• Interest Rates – One-Day Interbank Deposit, Long Term Interbank Deposit and ID x US Dollar Swap with Reset contracts
• Equity Index Futures – Ibovespa, Mini-Ibovespa, Brazil Index-50 and General Market Price Index
• Currency – USD Futures, Mini-USD and Euro Futures
• Agricultural – Arabica Coffee, Real-Denominated Corn, Soybeans, Crystal Sugar,  Live Cattle and USD Denominated Ethanol
• Sovereign Debt Instrument (Bonds) – A-Bond Futures, Three-, Five- and Seven-Year Brazilian Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and Ten-Year US Treasury Notes
• Metals – Gold Futures and Spot contracts

“BM&FBOVESPA is very pleased with this partnership that will contribute for the growth of our market. This partnership is aligned with our goal to offer advanced technological solutions for our customers”, said Cicero Augusto Vieira, BM&FBOVESPA Chief Operating Officer.

“We believe this agreement with BM&FBOVESPA will provide a superior ultra-low-latency connection to the exchange. We expect the co-location and proximity-based computing solutions planned for our new TTNET hub in Sao Paulo will provide our global customer base with a critical edge,” said Harris Brumfield, CEO of TT.

Source: TTNET, 12.04.2010

Filed under: BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, Exchanges, Latin America, News, Trading Technology, BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, DMA Direct Market Access, Financial Crisis, Latin America, Trade Connectivity, TT Trading Technologies

Fears of China property bubble

A large bubble is forming in China’s property market as a result of Beijing’s credit-driven stimulus programme, one of the country’s most prominent real estate developers warned.

Zhang Xin, chief executive of Soho China, one of the country’s most successful privately owned property developers, told the Financial Times the asset bubble was leading to rampant wasteful investment in the sector, undermining the country’s long-term growth prospects.

“Real estate prices should only go up because people want to actually use the space, but at the moment we can see more and more empty buildings across the whole country and in every real estate segment,” Ms Zhang said. “The rising prices are a direct result of so much money coming from the banks and the Chinese banks should be very worried.”

Ms Zhang’s assessment was echoed by Fan Gang, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee, who warned on Wednesday that real estate in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen was expensive and there was a growing risk of asset price bubbles.

Urban property prices in 70 big and medium-sized Chinese cities rose 3.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, accelerating from September’s 2.8 per cent rise, according to government figures.

Price rises in top-tier markets such as Beijing and Shanghai have been much faster. Analysts say the rebound has largely been driven by an unprecedented government-led expansion of bank lending. It is also being driven by government policies, including tax breaks, low interest rates and smaller down-payment requirements.

Investment in real estate development, a key driver of economic growth, rose 18.9 per cent in the first 10 months of the year on a year earlier, a marked acceleration from 17.7 per cent growth in January-September.

Ms Zhang said the current speculation should be a serious warning for the industry and the general economy.

“In Manhattan, they have vacancy rates of 10-15 per cent and they feel like the sky is falling, but in Pudong [the central business district in Shanghai] vacancy rates are as high as 50 per cent and they are still building new skyscrapers,” she said.

“If you look at GDP growth, then China looks like a new engine driving the global economy, but if you look at how growth is being created here by so much wasteful investment you wouldn’t be so optimistic.”

Source: FT, 18.11.2009 Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

Filed under: Asia, China, News, Risk Management, Asset Management, Black Swan, China 中国, Consumer Credit, Credit Crisis, Distress Debt, Financial Crisis, Investment, Real Estate, Risk Management, Shanghai

Dark Pools in Danger ?

Increasing regulatory supervision and calls for transparency on one side and  the threaten proliferation of “unregulated and opaque”  Dark Pool and crossing networks by large institutions, have increased the calls by exchanges and exchange federations to review regulation and even ban them.

While the global debate is in full swing, China has clearly distance it self from any alternative trading venues in the country and prohibited the access to any “non-transparent” trading venues like dark pools for it’s QDII (Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors).

Below Article highlight the current trends and voices

SEC to extend probe into dark pools 09.10.2009

The Securities and Exchange Commission is to extend its regulatory probing of dark pools to include issues surrounding high frequency trading, direct market access and co-location.

What’s the Matter with Dark Pools, 02.10.2009

Dark pools are on the regulatory front burner. They’re seen as competing with the displayed markets, even as they’ve captured a segment of trading from the desks of broker-dealers’ upstairs.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is now bearing down on issues related to trading in dark pools and how much flow can execute in individual pools without triggering obligations to the rest of the marketplace. To provide some perspective on this broader discussion….

LSE and Turquoise an Item: Official, 01.10.2009

When we suggested here a few weeks back that the London Stock Exchange take a look at on-the-block Turquoise as a possible solution to its ‘TradElect problem’ it was slightly tongue in cheek. After all, we knew the LSE was in talks with MillenniumIT and it looked on paper as if an approach to Turquoise would amount to the exchange losing face to an upstart rival.

Dark Pools 2009: Not So Dark Anymore AITE Group, 30.09.2009

Only two things about dark pools are clear at this time: their overall market share continues to grow, and regulatory intervention appears inevitable.

London Stock Exchange to leave FESE  30.09.2009

But the move is a sign that a recent criticism by some of the world’s largest exchanges of the large banks’ off-exchange activities is not shared by some exchanges, which see their interests increasingly aligned with those same banks.

n a letter to Eddy Wymeersch, chairman of the Committee of European Securities Regulators, Ms Hardt said FESE believed the banks’ dark pools were “unregulated venues” operating with “full opacity”. The European equities market was “becoming a dealer market”.

Chi-X Global alleges ‘fear card’ move by ASX 30.09.2009

The head of Chi-X Global, the equities trading platform, on Wednesday accused the Australian Securities Ex­change of playing the “fear card” after the exchange’s chairman spoke of the dangers of allowing multiple share trading venues.

New ideas fail to lift mood over dark pools 24.09.2009

Yet even as dark pools continue to generate eye-catching ideas, controversy is raging over their very existence. In Europe, the issue is pitting exchanges against big banks in a new battle over control of billions of dollars in share trading orders.

Exchanges call on G20 to tackle dark pools 23.09.2009

The World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) has urged G20 leaders to press for market reform to tackle the uneven playing field and eroded price discovery it claims has been caused by the emergence of alternative trading platforms such as dark pools.

In a letter sent to Mario Draghi, head of the financial stability board at the Bank for International Settlements ahead of the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, the WFE calls for more uniform rules between exchange-traded and “less-regulated” markets.

The WFE warns: “The heightened opacity of certain market operations in many countries inhibits price discovery and may lead to negative outcomes, such as increased volatility.”

“Taken together, the combination of the absence of a level playing field between execution venues and decreased market transparency is an unsettling development,” says the letter, signed by William Brodsky, chairman of the WFE.

The exchanges call on G20 leaders to agree on ways to avoid “regulatory arbitrage” to ensure market participants do not just go to countries with weak rules.

Source: Finetik, 01.10.2009

Filed under: Australia, Exchanges, FiNETIK Articles, Japan, News, Risk Management, Trading Technology, ASX Australian Stock Exchange, ATS Alternative Trading Systems, BAIKAL, BATS, CESR Committe of European Securities Regulators, Chi-X, Confidence Crisis, Dark Pools, Derivatives, Exchanges, FESE Federation of European Securities Exchanges, Financial Crisis, LSE Londo Stock Exchange, QDII, Regulation, Trading Hubs

The Demise of the Dollar, Robert Frisk

In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading

By Robert Fisk

October 06, 2009 “The Independent” — — In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars. The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.

The Americans, who are aware the meetings have taken place – although they have not discovered the details – are sure to fight this international cabal which will include hitherto loyal allies Japan and the Gulf Arabs. Against the background to these currency meetings, Sun Bigan, China’s former special envoy to the Middle East, has warned there is a risk of deepening divisions between China and the US over influence and oil in the Middle East. “Bilateral quarrels and clashes are unavoidable,” he told the Asia and Africa Review. “We cannot lower vigilance against hostility in the Middle East over energy interests and security.”

This sounds like a dangerous prediction of a future economic war between the US and China over Middle East oil – yet again turning the region’s conflicts into a battle for great power supremacy. China uses more oil incrementally than the US because its growth is less energy efficient. The transitional currency in the move away from dollars, according to Chinese banking sources, may well be gold. An indication of the huge amounts involved can be gained from the wealth of Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar who together hold an estimated $2.1 trillion in dollar reserves.

The decline of American economic power linked to the current global recession was implicitly acknowledged by the World Bank president Robert Zoellick. “One of the legacies of this crisis may be a recognition of changed economic power relations,” he said in Istanbul ahead of meetings this week of the IMF and World Bank. But it is China’s extraordinary new financial power – along with past anger among oil-producing and oil-consuming nations at America’s power to interfere in the international financial system – which has prompted the latest discussions involving the Gulf states.

Brazil has shown interest in collaborating in non-dollar oil payments, along with India. Indeed, China appears to be the most enthusiastic of all the financial powers involved, not least because of its enormous trade with the Middle East.

China imports 60 per cent of its oil, much of it from the Middle East and Russia. The Chinese have oil production concessions in Iraq – blocked by the US until this year – and since 2008 have held an $8bn agreement with Iran to develop refining capacity and gas resources. China has oil deals in Sudan (where it has substituted for US interests) and has been negotiating for oil concessions with Libya, where all such contracts are joint ventures.

Furthermore, Chinese exports to the region now account for no fewer than 10 per cent of the imports of every country in the Middle East, including a huge range of products from cars to weapon systems, food, clothes, even dolls. In a clear sign of China’s growing financial muscle, the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, yesterday pleaded with Beijing to let the yuan appreciate against a sliding dollar and, by extension, loosen China’s reliance on US monetary policy, to help rebalance the world economy and ease upward pressure on the euro.

Ever since the Bretton Woods agreements – the accords after the Second World War which bequeathed the architecture for the modern international financial system – America’s trading partners have been left to cope with the impact of Washington’s control and, in more recent years, the hegemony of the dollar as the dominant global reserve currency.

The Chinese believe, for example, that the Americans persuaded Britain to stay out of the euro in order to prevent an earlier move away from the dollar. But Chinese banking sources say their discussions have gone too far to be blocked now. “The Russians will eventually bring in the rouble to the basket of currencies,” a prominent Hong Kong broker told The Independent. “The Brits are stuck in the middle and will come into the euro. They have no choice because they won’t be able to use the US dollar.”

Chinese financial sources believe President Barack Obama is too busy fixing the US economy to concentrate on the extraordinary implications of the transition from the dollar in nine years’ time. The current deadline for the currency transition is 2018.

The US discussed the trend briefly at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh; the Chinese Central Bank governor and other officials have been worrying aloud about the dollar for years. Their problem is that much of their national wealth is tied up in dollar assets.

“These plans will change the face of international financial transactions,” one Chinese banker said. “America and Britain must be very worried. You will know how worried by the thunder of denials this news will generate.”

Iran announced late last month that its foreign currency reserves would henceforth be held in euros rather than dollars. Bankers remember, of course, what happened to the last Middle East oil producer to sell its oil in euros rather than dollars. A few months after Saddam Hussein trumpeted his decision, the Americans and British invaded Iraq.

Source: The Independent, 06.10.2009

Filed under: Asia, Brazil, China, Energy & Environment, India, Japan, Latin America, News, Risk Management, Black Swan, Brazil, China 中国, Confidence Crisis, Credit Crisis, Currency, Currency Crisis, Economic Crisis, Energy, Financial Crisis, FX Foreign Exchange, IMF, India, Middle East, Politics, Risk Management, Robert Frisk, Russia, Uncertainty, USA