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Mexico: FIBRAS (REIT´s) drive BMV Mexicos Stock Exchange listings

17 Placements that have been made in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV) so far in the year, five correspond to Fideicomisos de infraestructura en bienes raíces (Fibras).

These five trusts represent 34% of all placements in the year. This percentage shows the strength they mean to the Mexican stock market.

In addition, the participation of Fibras is remarkable for its amount of placement, since participates with 46.377 billion pesos, of the approximately 120 billion pesos collected until now.

But if the historical figure of Grupo Financiero Banorte is not considered- 27.815 million pesos-the capital gathered at the BMV is 91.568 billion pesos and of this amount, the resources obtained through the Fibras is close to 51%.

Then, five Fibras have collected slightly more than half of the resources at the BMV only from January 30 to July 24 this year.

The percentage of resources obtained by the trusts gives certainty and reflects a favorable perspective that constitutes one of the main platforms of financing for companies operating in the country, as well as an important investment vehicle.

Given the positive evolution of the Fibras in so far this year, José Manuel Allende, Deputy general director of promotion and planning of the BMV, did not rule out that in the remainder of the year new placements of these trusts could be announced .

The launch of a new Fibra, of Grupo Danhos is expected for next September. While today there are six trusts from investment in real estate listed in BMV: Fibra UNO, Fibra Hotel, Fibra Mcquarie, Fibra Inn, Fibra Terra and Fibra Shop.

Performance and operability of the Fibra has excelled since they went to the Mexican stock market, already reaching high levels of operation and in accordance with the liquidity, the BMV index, two trusts are in the segment of high liquidity and three more are in a midrange, said Jorge Placido, director of analysis and investment strategy of Vector.

No doubt it was an instrument with very good acceptance among investors and is expected to grow interestingly in the future, because it has several advantages.

For the real estate sector, the arrival of the Fibras brought important benefits that will also impact on the growth of the productive sector construction Mexico and represents one of the best ways to access funding.

Listings  BMV 2013 from January 30 – till July 24, 2013

DATE

ISSUER

AMOUNT

(MXN)

24/07/2013

FIBRA SHOP

5,466’319,197.50

27/07/2013

BANORTE

27,814’854,210.00

10/07/2013

GRUPO AEROPORTUARIO DEL CENTRO NORTE (OMA)

2,760’000,000.00

26/06/2013

CORPORACIÓN INMOBILIARIA VESTA

2,865’997,372.50

26/06/2013

GRUPO FINANCIERO INBURSA

12,548’681,522.00

21/06/2013

OHL MEXICO

6,993’508,369.00

14/06/2013

HOTELES CITY EXPRESS

2,915’603,088.00

03/06/2013

DESARROLLADORA Y OPERADORA DE INFRAESTRUCTURA HOSPITALA-RIA DE IXTAPALUCA

1,845’000,000.00

03/06/2013

SERVICIOS INTEGRADOS DE PASAJE Y TURISMO

3,500’000,000.00

31/05/2013

FIBRA HOTELERA MEXICANA

4,877’725,000.00

22/03/2013

INFRAESTRUCTURA ENERGETICA NOVA

7,415’757,000.00

20/03/2013

PLA ADMINISTRADORA INDUSTRIAL (FIBRA TERRA)

9,521’540,000.00

13/03/2013

FIBRA INN

4,460’457,244.50

13/03/2013

GRUPO DINIZ

250’000,000.00

26/02/2013

GRUPO CIOSA

150’000,000.00

31/01/2013

ORGANIZACION CULTIBA

3,944’696,770.00

30/01/2013

FIBRA UNO

22,050’000,000.00

(Judith Santiago / Mexican Business Web)

Related posts:

Filed under: BMV - Mexico, Exchanges, Latin America, Mexico, Risk Management, , , , ,

VAM: Vietnam Market Analysis – December 2012

Improved economic conditions somewhat buoyed the stock market in the last month of the year as all three indices moved up
The VN-index closed at 413.7, gaining 11.23% while VN30 closed at 485.4, picking up 9.42%. HNX was the best performer of three indices, increasing 11.83% to close the month at 57.09.
 
Macro indicators showed joyful December
Market confidence was regained thanks to better-than-expected CPI, trade balance, interest rates cut and detail implementation of the Government on spurring the economy. For the first time in four months CPI slowed in December, with consumer prices rising 6.81% from a year earlier after climbing 7.08% Y-o-Y in November. Consequently, the State Bank cut benchmark interest rates for a sixth time to help companies cope with difficulties in production and business. The trade balance posted a first year of surplus (of US$284mn) since 1993. Despite a gloomy year, FDI disbursement reached USD10.5bn, dropping a marginal 5% YoY. As a result, foreign reserves are significantly improved, reaching US$24 billion, equivalent to 12 weeks of import. The Dong remains unchanged.
 
However, stability was achieved at the cost of growth
Vietnam’s economy expanded at the slowest pace in 13 years in 2012 as a slump in bank lending dampened domestic demand. GDP grew 5.03%, down from 5.89% in 2011, and the lowest since 1999. Bad debt and the gloomy business environment hampered credit growth, which ended 2012 at 6.45% YoY while total liquidity growth and deposit growth were 19.85% and 20.29% YoY, respectively.As the lenders’ liquidity position becomes comfortable and full-year inflation was a lower-than-expected 6.81%, the central bank decided to cut all policy rates and deposit cap rate by 1%, effective on December 24, in an attempt to make banks lend more. But as the real interest rate is still positive, some are speculating on another rate cut, even as the World Bank warned against easing too soon.
On the other front, the HSBC’s Vietnam PMI index fell back to deterioration in December, down to 49.3 from 50.5 last month, as a result of reduction in order inflows, disinvestment of inventory holdings and stagnating production volumes.
 
Government details its determination to spur the economy
To spur the economy and resolve the financial system, the Government started implementing a detailed action plan. Businesses may enjoy lower corporate income tax rate in 2013, i.e. 23% for large enterprises and 20% for SMEs (down from 25% earlier); real estate will receive more support based on a newly approved proposal by MoF, which includes a 50% VAT reduction, 2-year extension on the deadline of land use fees payment and the establishment of AMC aiming to solve rising NPLs. Moreover, USD300mn from Asian Development Bank in a 25-year loan package will help to restructure SOEs in 2013.
 
Authority changes rules to push the capital market
On the capital market, SSC submitted its proposal in support of the stock market to the Ministry, in which key measures might include tax incentives, allowing to issue stocks below par, increasing margin ratio and trading band and most importantly, increasing foreign ownership limit. Otherwise, SBV governor also announced that they are working on revising the Decree 69/2007, wherein special cases, i.e for restructuring commercial banks, the foreign ownership ratio might be allowed to exceed 30%. Since 10th January, the number of gold bar shops will decline from 8,000 to 2,400 including around 900 in Ho Chi Minh City and 400 in Hanoi, after SBV completes the licensing procedures. 
 
Our ViewOn the background of good macro economic indicators coming out in December and improved investor sentiments after seeing the Government’s determination to spur the economy being detailed into action plans, the stock market had a good run in the last month of 2012. We are cautiously optimistic and have started to mobilize cash into Vietnam Dong to be ready for deployment toward increasing equity level for the Fund. We are keen to buy stocks of strong companies with sound cash flow and healthy balance sheets in fundamental industries such as consumers and materials.

Filed under: Banking, Exchanges, News, Risk Management, Services, Vietnam, Wealth Management, , , , , , , , , , , ,

VAM: Vietnam Market Analysis – November 2012

Whilst SBV is still struggling to tackle bad debt, additional banking scandal has fanned market concerns about banking system instability
Coming as another shock that made the market drop 3.27% in one day was the resignation of Mr. Dang Van Thanh as Chairman of Sacombank following his wife’s resignation from Sugar Bourbon Tay Ninh. Though there are many rumors spread around this news, the market is looking at it as uncertainty still exists in the banking system. Fortunately, depositors’ reaction seemed to be calmer this time as there was no sign of “bank run” after the resignation. In the meantime, decision on the SBV’s initiative in setting up company to own and manage bad debt for banks has not been reached.
 
Stability continues to be the priority for next year
The government ended the National Assembly meeting with a good showing of strong determination to restructure the banking system at the lowest cost possible, and preventing any systemic collapse. Since the peak in August last year, inflation has been successfully controlled, at the cost of slowest GDP growth in 13 years. The national CPI growth rate posted a modest increase of 0.47% M-o-M in November, a deceleration from 0.85% in the last month and 2.2% in September when one-off adjustments were made to pharmaceutical and health care items. The government forecasts that 2012 CPI would be around 7.5% Y-o-Y and a decade low target of 6% is set for next year as well.
 
Lower inflation adding pressure on rate cuts
Lower expected FY2012 inflation of 7.5% and healthy liquidity condition of lenders are adding more pressure on rate cuts. By Nov 20, total deposit also increased 15.98% YTD while credit growth including trust investment and corporate bond investment was only 4.15% YTD. Banks now turn to bonds to put excess cash to work, which consequently causes the yield to drop. Under this circumstance, the Government has made known their contemplation of cutting deposit rate or putting a ceiling for lending, with a view to creating better environment to spur economy in 2013. The Government expects the economy will expand at 5.5% next year.
 
Dong confidence is strengthened
Despite the gloomy condition, FDI sector is doing well. Foreign companies’ export turnover rose 30% in eleven months through November, accounting for about two-thirds of total exports. The YTD FDI disbursement has reached USD9.9bn up to November 2012. This amount was down just slightly from USD10.05bn in 11M2011. The negligible decline showed that the foreign capital flow into Vietnam was still stable, helping the balance of payment to remain in surplus this year. The YTD trade balance is also a surplus despite a small deficit in November. And it is likely that Vietnam will record the first year of trade surplus since 1995. The deficit if any, will be lower than USD1bn. The export gains have reinforced Vietnam’s foreign-exchange reserves, expected to reach the equivalent of about 12 weeks of imports by the end of the year, which in turn would support the value of Dong.
 
PMI data signals recovery
The seasonally adjusted HSBC Vietnam Manufacturing PMI posted an increment to 50.5 from 48.7, which is above the neutral 50.0 value for the first time since September 2011. Although the index showed only a marginal improvement, it reflected returns to growth in both production levels and new orders during November. The increase in November’s PMI underscores optimism the economy is recovering after 14 month slowdown, which is in line with the situation in China and U.S. 
 
All three indices moved lower over November with low liquidity
The Vn-Index closed at 377.82, losing 2.64%. The HN exchange tumbled 3.36% to 51.05, whilst the VN30 dropped 3.19% to 443.68.
 
Our ViewWe are hopeful that the worst may be over. The market is waiting for clearer signs of economic turnaround while the Government is showing its determination in solving its problems. The trade-off between stable economy and growth requires consistency in policy setting. The stability of Dong and low inflation target level next year make Vietnam’s business environment more attractive. Fortunately, on the bottom-out journey, Vietnam would be helped by the data signaling a recovery in U.S. and China.

Filed under: News, Risk Management, Vietnam, , , , , , , , ,

Latin America: Investors Newsletter 13 July 2012

Mexico

One of the most attractive emerging markets in the world 13.07.2012
Behind the gory headlines lies a country with strong economic growth and surprisingly prudent management. Here’s why Mexico could be one of the most attractive emerging markets in the world
Mexico Growth Prospects Remain Positive Despite Weaker Data  12.07. 2012
Mexico economy seen slowing heading into the second half. Blame the U.S. on this one.
Sorry Brazil, Investors Prefer Mexico 10.07.2012
For a growing number of portfolio investors, Brazil has been replaced by Mexico.

 

Brazil

Latin America

See also LIQ Latin America Infrastructure and ALI Alternative Latin Investor  

Filed under: Brazil, Latin America, Mexico, News, , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Latin America: Investors Newsletter 13 April 2012- Alternative Latin Investor

Alternative bioenergy M&A picks up steam in LatAm
Ethanol deals wait for better days

Alternative bioenergy crops could drive the next big wave of M&A in Latin America, much like sugarcane drove activity during the ethanol boom in the early 2000s, according to industry sources.

European Bank Crisis
-How will it affect Latin America?

European banks provide 45% of all the external credit lines to LatAm. Could a pullback from their international lending activities affect the operations of LatAm companies?

Other News from Latin America

LatAm tops for emerging Private Equity 

UBS Promotes LatAm Dealmaker 

Latin America’s Start Ups Expand: From Silicon Valley to Tequila Valley 

GM urges Latin America to honor trade pacts 

Private Equity Poised For Gains In Brazil On Growth Ahead 

Brazil Stocks Erase Gains, Slump On Foreign Investor Exit

Mexican firm eyeing Cuba offshore oil projects

Mexico steps out of Brazil’s shadow

Chile LAN-Brazil TAM Tie-Up Co Seen Having 2014 Revenue Of $17.5 Billion

YPF Jumps on Report Argentina Seeks Control: Buenos Aires Move

Investors Should Say Goodbye Argentina

Peru Central Bank Buys $668 Million to Stem Sol Gain: Lima Mover

Uruguay’s Credit Rating Returned to Investment Grade by S&P

Fitch revises outlook on 5 Venezuelan banks to negative

Ecuador Chosen as Best Overseas Residential Investment Market

 

Source: Alternative  Latin Investor, 13.04.2012

Filed under: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, Risk Management, Venezuela, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Alternative Latin Investor: Investing in Mexcio Issue 14

The Alternative Latin Investor Issue #14 is focusing on Investing in Mexico.  Below some of the other content of issue #14. LAWEA pronounces 2012 ‘The Year of Wind,’ we explain how investors can publicly trade private equity in Mexico, as well as an in-depth update of foreign land regulation in Brazil and Argentina.

Special Issue: Investing in Mexico

    • Finding the Value in Mexican Real Estate
    • Understanding the Mexican Mortgage
    • The  Mexican Investment Environment
    • Investment Opportunities in Business Hotels and Affordable Tourism
    • Mexico City: Car Addiction
    • Improving Mexico’s Housing Finance Infrastructure
    • Private Equity in Mexico: Capitalizing on the Growing Middle Class
    • CKDs: The Marriage of Wealth and Growth
    • Mexico’s Outlook for 2012 and Beyond
    • What We Talk About When We Talk About  Infrastructure

Renewabale Energy:  2012: LatAm’s Year of Wind Energy
Agriculture Business:Red Roses, Blue Skies: A glimpse at the LatAm flower industry
HF:  What Hedge Funds Association (HFA) members have to say about LatAm
Emerging Markets: How Will European Banks’ problems affect  Latin America
Profiles:Investing in Argentina: A legal  Perspective
Forex:Trading LatAm currencies in 2012
Real Estate

  • 40  years of residential and commercial  Development in Colombia
  • Unconstitutional regulation in Brazil
  • Argentina’s Rural Land Law

Private Equity CKD: Public Private Equity
Latin American Art
Philanthropy
Regulation: Rural Land Laws – Brazil and Argentina

Please view and access Issue 14 in the following formats

Virtual Viewer   www.alternativelatininvestor.com/issue14-sample.htm

PDF   www.alternativelatininvestor.com/issue14-sample.pdf

For more details and information please view http://www.alternativelatininvestor.com

Source: AlternativeLatinInvestor 24.02.2012

Filed under: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Energy & Environment, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, Wealth Management, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The Global Crisis Reaches China: Unrest Spreads as Growth Stalls

China’s leaders are currently contending with declining demand, rising debt and a real estate bubble. Some factories are laying off workers, suffering financial losses or even closing as orders from crisis-plagued Europe dry up. The economic strains are frustrating workers and consumers in the country, threatening the political establishment and Beijing’s economic miracle.

This October was the third straight month Chinese exports decreased. Along with it, the hopes of German manufacturers that Asia’s growth market might help lift them out of the global crisis as it did in 2008 are also evaporating. This time China faces enormous challenges of its own — a real estate market bubble and local government debt — that could even pose a risk to the global economy.

Related article: Every Chinese Province bankrupt like Greece –  Chinese Regime nearly bankrupt  – 17.11.2011

A police special forces unit appears suddenly. One moment, a worker named Liu* is marching back and forth in front of city hall in Dongguan, China, with about 300 colleagues from the bankrupt factory Bill Electronic. “Give us back the money from our blood and sweat!” they chant.

The next moment, their shouts turn to screams as a few hundred uniformed police with helmets, shields and batons, along with numerous plainclothes security forces, leap out of olive green police vans. The demonstration leaders, including Liu, are rounded up on the side of the street by police dogs. Within just a few minutes’ time, the communist authorities have successfully suffocated the protest.

The men and women, most of them young adults, are packed into yellow buses and hauled back to their factory, where the government exerts massive pressure: By afternoon, they must consent to make do with 60 percent of the wages they are owed by the employment office. Anyone who refuses, officials warn, will receive nothing at all.

The new global crisis has reached China. Debt problems in Europe, the country’s most important trading partner, are starting to dim prospects here in the nation that has effectively become the world’s factory, as well. The unstable United States economy and threat of a trade war between the two superpowers make the situation even more uncertain. As the US presidential election campaign starts too heat up, American politicians are vying to outdo one another in protectionist declarations directed toward their communist rival.

Disillusioned Workers

For Liu, the factory worker, his country’s economic miracle is certainly over for now. Until recently, he worked 12 hours a day assembling accessories for DVD players. But then there was less and less work to do, he says, and a while back, the boss informed workers that fewer orders were coming in from Europe.

After the police break up the demonstration, Liu, now daunted, wanders through his city’s dusty streets, passing row upon row of factories and residential buildings. “We just wanted our full wages, but they set the police on us,” he says. He’s lost his faith in the party and the government.

Especially here in the export region of Guangdong, an experimental laboratory of Chinese capitalism, hardly a day goes by without new bankruptcies or protests. The Yue Chen shoe factory in Dongguan, which produces athletic shoes for a parent company in Taiwan that supplies brands such as New Balance, is in a state of emergency. With orders dropping off, the manufacturer has fired 18 managers. Workers have seen overtime pay eliminated, and normal wages are barely enough to live on. Frustration is so high that some shoe factory workers also went to protest in front of city hall. About 10 of them were injured in the clash with police, some young women from the factory report.

The situation outside the gray factory complex is tense. Thugs in plainclothes guard the entrance, photographing and intimidating anyone who talks to the workers. Inside the factory, the showdown between bosses and employees goes on. Workers sit inactive in cheerless factory rooms. The management has switched off the power in some of the halls where workers normally sew and glue together shoes.

In the rest of China as well, more and more assembly lines are grinding to a halt. In Wenzhou in eastern China, a city known for making cheap lighters, shoes and clothes, a large number of business owners are on the run from their creditors, the private shadow banks that last lent them money. Some of these businesspeople even secretly removed machinery from their factories before taking off.

Demand Drop in Europe and China

China’s showcase industries are also feeling the crunch of the drop in European demand. Suntech Power Holdings, for example, which manufactures solar panels in Wuxi, near Shanghai, reported third-quarter losses of $116 million (€87 million). During the same quarter of the previous year, the company generated $33 million in profits.

Just recently, Asia’s champion exporter was the object of admiration from foreign executives and politicians, a victor in the global financial crisis. Some even believed they’d found a superior alternative to crisis-ridden Western-style market economies in Beijing’s authoritarian-style capitalism.

German carmakers, in particular, let themselves be carried away by China’s growth and made enormous investments. China is Volkswagen’s most important market, and the company hopes to sell 2 million cars there by the end of this year.

But the car boom is slowing. “We haven’t received a single new order in nine days,” admits a smartly dressed salesman at Dongguan’s Porsche dealership. “We’ve never experienced that before.” Many business owners are short on cash, he adds. “They used to mostly pay cash, but now they prefer to buy on credit.”

Cheap Chinese brands such as BYD (“Build Your Dreams”) are also having a harder time selling their cars. Important governmental tax incentives for buying cars ran out last year, and major cities such as Beijing are attempting to ease their congested streets by restricting the number of new automobiles. In October, people in China bought roughly 7 percent fewer cars than in the previous month.

Economic Missteps?

At first, it seemed as if Beijing’s state capitalists had found the magic recipe for endless growth. In 2009, they pumped 4 trillion yuan (the equivalent of €430 billion) — China’s largest stimulus package in history — into building ever more modern highways, train stations and airports. Tax incentives led millions of farmers to purchase refrigerators and computers for the first time.

More or less on the party’s orders, banks threw their money at the people’s feet, and local governments were particularly free about getting themselves into debt. By the end of 2010, outstanding debt stood at 10.7 trillion yuan — nearly a quarter of China’s entire economic output.

Much of these funds went, directly or indirectly, into real estate construction. Local governments discovered that selling land for building made for a lucrative source of revenue — and of collateral, so banks would continue to issue new loans. Thousands of farmers were driven off their fields so that villas and apartment buildings could be built.

Many of those development projects, often megalomaniac undertakings from the start, are now ghost towns. In China’s 15 largest cities in October, the number of newly auctioned building plots decreased by 39 percent compared to October 2010.

While many in the West hold out hope that China can solve the euro and dollar debt crisis with its foreign currency holdings, the rift between rich and poor within the country is growing. The “harmonious society” promised by Hu Jintao, head of the government and of the Communist Party, is at risk.

The country’s central bank has increased interest rates five times since mid-2010 to get inflation under control, while at the same time forcing banks to hold larger reserve funds. Beijing hopes this method will allow it to orchestrate a “soft landing” from its own economic boom. But the maneuver entails risks. Along with the construction industry, the motor driving China’s economy up until now, other sectors such as cement production, steelmaking and furniture construction stand to lose vitality as well.

Part 2: Will Rising Middle Class Turn against Government?

If the real estate bubble bursts, it is sure to turn China’s rising middle class against the government. Until now, the nouveau riche has viewed the Communist Party as a guarantee of their own prosperity. Recently, however, outraged apartment owners organized a demonstration in downtown Shanghai, protesting the decline in the value of their property.

Wang Jiang, 28, points to a nearly complete apartment block in Anting, one of the city’s suburbs. The software company manager bought an apartment on the 16th floor of the building for €138,000 in early September. It was a steep price for 82 square meters (883 square feet), especially since the building is located in an industrial area, hemmed in by factories and highways. But Wang was determined to get in on the boom. He didn’t even take the time to view the housing complex before he bought the apartment. Where else, after all, should he have invested his assets, if not in real estate?

Now China’s state-run banks are paying their customers negative interest and Shanghai’s stock market is considered a high-risk casino, where a few major governmental investors are believed to manipulate exchange rates at will.

Wang’s apartment isn’t even finished yet, but he no longer feels any joy about moving in — not now that the real estate company is offering similar apartments in the same complex for about 20 percent less.

Wang feels he was deceived about his apartment’s resale value. “What are they thinking?” he demands. “Surely they can’t just erase a portion of my assets?”

But they can.

Wang and many other furious apartment owners went to the real estate company’s salesroom to protest the drop in value. Suddenly, Wang relates, someone started smashing the miniature models of apartments. After that, in the blink of an eye, the company’s guards grabbed him and hauled the protesters to the police in minibuses. “We were interrogated until 2 a.m. in the morning,” Wang says. Some of the protesters, he adds, are still in prison and authorities won’t tell their families anything.

A Political Quandary

Whether in Dongguan or Shanghai, cracks seem to be forming everywhere in Chinese society. As long as the one-party dictatorship kept growth in the double digits, most people accepted their lack of freedom. Now, though, Beijing is facing a dilemma. Tough police crackdowns will hardly get the consequences of the stagnating economy under control in the long term. But nor are government subsidies enough to stimulate the economy. It seems neither money nor force will help.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao recently announced a “fine-tuning” of his economic policy: Banks should grant more generous loans, especially to small and medium-sized export companies, he said.

The economic situation now is far more complicated than it was after the 2008 global financial crisis, says economist Lin Jiang. In 2008, Chinese exports collapsed and roughly 25 million migrant workers had to return from factories to their home provinces.

Back in Dongguan, authorities have no cause at the moment to fear any further protest from Liu, the factory worker. He’s too busy looking for a new place to stay. When he lost his job, he also lost his spot in one of the electronics factory’s residences.

* Liu’s name has been changed by the editors in order to protect his identity.

Source: Spiegl Online, 08.12.2011 By Wieland Wagner

Filed under: China, Countries, News, Risk Management, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Alternative Latin Investor: Premium Launch Issue Nr 11.

Alternative Latin Investor August 2011 – Issue 11 Premium Launch Issue

 News

Political Moves: brought to you by Latinnews.com

Emerging Markets

Growing M&A Activity between Asia and Latin America?

Latin American Venture Capital: Lessons Learned from China

Be careful What You Wish For- A Brazilian Cautionary Tale

Philanthropy

Cuipo: Saving the Rainforest One Meter at a Time

Nuts: Crops that Grow Well in LatAm

Entering The Brazilian Agribusiness Sector (Premium)

Infrastructure

Mezzanine Financing for LatAm’s Infrastructure

Energy

Investing in Brazilian Oil (Premium)

Art

Fine Art Funds: Taking the Soul Out of Art Investing?

Hedge Funds

MILA Integration

LatAm Fund Due Diligence: What Managers Need to Know (Premium)

Institutional Investing in LatAm: A Contrarian’s View (Premium)

Attracting US Institutional Investors to LatAm Funds (Premium)

Quant Funds in LatAm (Premium)

How HNWI in LatAm View Alternative Assets (Premium)

Forex

Spotting Opportunities in LatAm Forex Trading

Regulation

Tax Incentives: Software Development in Argentina

Ventures

Mercatrade: Inter-emerging Market Trade

QuickStart Global: Have an Office Anywhere

Real Estate

Airlift Encourages Latin America to reach for the skies

Read the content  at www.alternativelatininvestor.com/issue11.html 

To subscribe please click on the corner tabs within the above magazines or click directly to www.alternativelatininvestor.com/signup.php If your firm is interested in multiple licenses we can provide corporate discounts.

Please feel free email me directly with comments or questions regarding our current content or with suggestions for future stories. I can be reached at editor@alternativelatininvestor.com or 202-905-0378.

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Filed under: Argentina, Banking, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Mexico, News, Peru, Risk Management, Wealth Management, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

China: BlackRock – Can China´s Saver save the world?

  • China has experienced rapid credit-led growth in recent years. This growth has been an important contributor to global economic recovery.
  •  Many commentators anticipate that the rapid nature of Chinese credit growth, allied to a capital allocation process led by political direction and undertaken at highly subsidized rates of interest, will inevitably end in a credit bust.
  •  Further, these critics point to the opaque nature of China’s banking system, rapidly growing off-balance-sheet exposures and an overblown real estate sector as evidence of a fragile Sino financial system overdue for a crisis that will, in turn, cripple world growth and extended financial systems elsewhere.
  •  While we are sympathetic to much of the logic behind these fears, we believe that these concerns float on some flimsy analysis. As one example, we cite the mismatch between the oft-cited story of 65 million empty apartments nationwide in China and the inconvenient truth that market estimates indicate that only 60 million apartments have been completed in the last decade.
  •  More importantly, we believe that the “panda bears” overlook the fact that much of the expansion in China’s financial balance sheet has been quasi-fiscal lending and that such lending is backed and guaranteed by a system that is experiencing rapid growth in income and starting from a low level of overall debt.
  • Domestic savings rates are high — indeed, excessive at over 50% of GDP. While external capital has funded much of the rise in banking system liabilities over the last 12 months, China also runs a current account surplus, is largely domestically funded and lacks many of the vulnerabilities that undid Western credit systems in 2007–08.
  •  We agree that bad debt levels in China will rise — in fact, in a worst-case scenario, there could be as much as 7 trillion RMB of bad loans in the system at present, according to our estimates. But bank balance sheets are strong, profit growth is subsidized by fixed lending and deposit rates, and economic growth itself should be strong enough to absorb most reasonable estimates of losses without serious challenges to financial system stability.
  •  Bank deposits are the main source of domestic savings. We are confident that Beijing will seek to avoid social discontent arising from any threat to the security of deposits with vigor and resources that would make Western bailouts appear puny by comparison. Our concern is that savings growth rates will slow over the next few years and that deposit growth will be much more pedestrian than over the last decade. The recent consolidation of data on funding growth under the banner of Total Social Financing (TSF) presents a clearer picture of the efficiency of deposit mobilization in funding growth. Even allowing for shortcomings in methodology, the incremental growth per unit of financing — Financial Incremental Capital Output Ratio, or FICOR, as we term it — has deteriorated over the last decade.
  •  As a consequence of slower savings rates and reduced FICOR, we expect a slowdown in trend growth over the next few years to 7-8% rather than the 8-10% level of recent times. State-led capital allocation and rate fixing was a feature of both Korea and Japan in the past. In both cases, financial crisis arising from this policy mix was triggered by financial reform. We believe the same holds for China, but will take a number of years to unfold.

Read full report Can China´s Savers save the world

Source: BlackRock / Carral Sierra, 12.07.2011

Filed under: China, Market Data, Risk Management, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

China: BlackRock – Puede el ahorro de China salvar al mundo?

China ha experimentado en años recientes un rápido crecimiento impulsado por el crédito, el cual ha sido un factor importante en la recuperación económica global. Sin embargo:

  • Muchos analistas anticipan que la rápida condición del crecimiento chino gracias al crédito, junto con un proceso de distribución de capital dirigido por sus políticos y emprendido a tasas de interés altamente subsidiadas, inevitablemente derivará en una caída crediticia.
  • Estos comentarios señalan la naturaleza opaca del sistema bancario de China, una rápida exposición de las hojas de balance y un sector inmobiliario inflado, como la evidencia de un sistema financiero frágil susceptible a una crisis que, a su vez, afectará el crecimiento mundial y a otros sistemas financieros.

    Opiniones del BlackRock Investment Institute: ¿Puede el Ahorro de China Salvar al Mundo?

  • En la nueva publicación del BlackRock Investment Institute, “¿Puede el ahorro de China salvar al mundo? (Can China Savers Save the World?)”, los autores analizan las razones que están en la base de estos temores. Al respecto, afirman que esta inquietud podría estar basada en un análisis débil.
  • Asimismo, creen que los llamados “pandas” no consideran el hecho de que gran parte de la expansión de la balanza financiera de China se ha basado en préstamos casi fiscales y que tienen el respaldo y garantía de un sistema que experimenta un rápido crecimiento de su ingreso y cuenta con un nivel bajo de deuda.
  • En consecuencia, los autores sugieren que China no sufrirá un colapso financiero, sino a lo sumo un descenso en su potencial y en su tasa de crecimiento.

Adjunto te hacemos llegar el documento completo en inglés en formato PDF. En caso de cualquier duda adicional, quedamos a tu disposición.

Para leer el reporte completo click aqui.  Can China´s Savers save the world

Source: Black Rock / Carral Sierra, 12.07.2011

Filed under: China, News, Risk Management, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

FT Special Report: Investing in Mexico

Read the FT Special Report at Investing in Mexico FT Special Report June 2011

 

Boom times despite safety fears

There has been a rise in violent crime in some areas, but the country is still a good place for business, says John Paul Rathbone

Better government and smarter leadership, combined with strategic vision, could change Mexico very swiftly, writes Luis Rubio

Regulation: Media wars give hope of more choice

Competition, once an infrequent and timid visitor, is making a loud return, says Adam Thomson

Politics: Reform on hold as all eyes turn to elections

The PRI is tipped to regain the presidency but it is not all plain sailing, writes Adam Thomson

Industry: Aerospace sector helps high-tech economy fly

Advanced manufacturing skills are boosting exports, writes Adam Thomson

US relationship: Bumps on road to better links

Differences persist on guns, drugs and illegal migrants, says Anna Fifield

Still everything to play for in face-off with BrazilJohn Authers considers the nation’s rivalry with Brazil and asks whether there is all still to play

Stock market: Changes give vigour to once-somnolent bourse

Technical and other alterations facilitate business, reports Adam Thomson

Tourism: Aggressive push to promote country’s multifaceted allure

The nation’s tourism industry is working hard to persuade visitors there is more to discover, writes Adam Thomson

Mexico City: Conditions improve for business

A string of liberal social reforms during the past few years has led some observers to rename Mexico’s capital ‘Marcelona’, writes Adam Thomson

FT Special Report, 13.07.2011

Filed under: BMV - Mexico, Brazil, Library, Mexico, News, Risk Management, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Asia Trader & Investor Conference, Singapore 07-08 May 2011

ATIC @Singapore 2011 will feature more than 40 seminars conducted by international and local gurus and experts.  The Asian Trader and Investment Convention – Singapore
Covering topics like:

Futures | Equities | Options | ETF | CFD | Commodities | FOREX | Warrants | Alternative Investment | Property | Insurance | Managed Funds

Event Highlights

  • First in bringing breakthrough and new methods of trading
  • Over 50 investment educational seminars
  • A Specialised Panel of top analysts who will conduct real-time analyses of the same stock
  • Special Trading Focus Workshops on Stocks, Futures, Commodities, Gold, ETFs, Options and Warrants
  • Stock Analysis on Regional Markets by International Traders
  • Investor Clinics that help them improve trading
  • Investment Network Platform with different market segment experts
  • Property Investment Showcase – with property investment education and special panel discussion on Property vs Stock Investments
  • The largest Finance and Investment Book fair

First launched in 2006, Asia Trader and Investor Convention (ATIC) event has travelled to 7 Asian Cities, i.e., Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, Mumbai, Shenzhen and Tokyo. With participation by over 300 financial services companies, including securities exchanges, retail and consumer banks, securities brokerage firms, asset/fund management firms, listed companies and other financial services providers, ATIC events have attracted over 100,000 active traders and serious investors across Asia.

Source: The ATIC, 05.05.2011

Filed under: Asia, China, Events, Exchanges, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, News, Singapore, Vietnam, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Alternative Latin Investor, April 2011 – Issue 9

Alternative Latin Investor April 2011 – Issue 9

– Latin American Art
 Cuban Visions Event

-Hedge Funds             
 The business of running a hedge fund

-Agribuiness
Three strategies for investing in Latam Agriculture Sector
Bamboo for construction

-Infrastructure 
A look at infrastructure development in Argentina
 
-Real Estate             
Brazil’s real estate boom and the environment
 
-Venture                       
 Private Island Inc – International island brokerage
 
-Renewable Energy   
 Bio Fuel – Brazil vs. USA
 
-Regulation 
 Argentina’s legal update
 
-Profiles 
 Amaury Junior: CIO and Founder of Vision Brazil Investments 39
 
-Wine                           
  The newest designer labels…. in a glass
 
-Philanthropy    
 Accion: Microfinance in Latin America    
 

http://www.alternativelatininvestor.com/registration.html
Register for free to gain access to new feature article

Filed under: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Energy & Environment, Events, Latin America, Mexico, Peru, Risk Management, Wealth Management, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Mexico exchange lists first REIT after delays

Local pension funds took big stakes

MEXICO CITY, March 21 (Reuters) – Mexico‘s stock exchange listed the country’s first real estate investment trust last week, allowing investors to make big bets on the local property market.

The sale of shares in the first real estate investment trust (REIT) in Mexico came after years of frustration that saw the current deal stumble last month before finally reaching investors.

If Mexico’s REITs prove to be successful, the securities could give local property markets a big capital injection.

Fibra UNO (FUNO11.MX), the maiden REIT named for its acronym in Spanish, was rebuffed in February by investors unwilling to pay the asking price, but the deal was retooled and listed on the local exchange on Thursday.

“Mexico is taking on a new life, becoming more dynamic,” Luis Tellez, head of the Mexican Stock Exchange (BOLSAA.MX), told Reuters shortly after the security was listed.

Mexico financial markets are not as vibrant as those in Brazil where REITs have deep roots but Tellez said this week’s REIT listing was a sign of things to come.

“We are not at the level of Brazil but we are much more dynamic than we were,” he said.

The REIT sold roughly $300 million worth of shares with about a third bought by foreigners and the rest by domestic investors. The February book was roughly split between foreign and domestic investors.

Investors took hold of 43.7 percent of the trust – or 185,385,543 shares valued at 19.5 Mexican pesos each. The fund will hold a basket of 16 properties located in several states across the country.

REITs are seen as an efficient way to inject capital into property markets because they spread the risk and costs of long-term building projects across many tradeable shares.

Mexico’s 15 private pensions and their $115 billion in assets are likely to continue to be a source of funding for REIT investments. For an analysis on the Mexico pension funds and REIT

REIT AND RE-REIT

The local advisors behind the deal, Protego Asesores, went back to the drawing board after the first offer was rejected and eventually enticed investors with a 10 percent discount.

The property owners also agreed to swap some of their properties for equity in the REIT rather than get paid in cash, as another way to smooth the deal, Protego Asesores said.

Turmoil in North Africa and the earthquake in Japan made this a difficult time for the deal but the advisors wanted to conclude it quickly to put an end to 18-months of work.

“We’ve always said that the real estate market in Mexico cannot grow as it should without investment from the private market,” said Augusto Arellano, director of Protego Asesores.

“You cannot have healthy real estate growth if you simply rely on private funding, and we knew that was on our side.”

Source: Reuters 21.03.2011 by Patrick Rucker, additional reporting by Michael O’Boyle, Elinor Comlay

Filed under: BMV - Mexico, Exchanges, Latin America, Mexico, News, , , , , , ,

Kroll LATAM Risk Report December 2010: Brazil Land Ownership & Infrastructure Fraud, Private Banking KYC, Colombia Corruption

FRAUD – Brazil – Steering Clear of the Potholes
Brazil has committed to billions of dollars worth of infrastructure investments in preparation for the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games. The opportunities for international suppliers, contractors and investors are considerable. So, too, are the risks of fraud.

Vander Giordano, Sao Paulo & Allie Nichols, New York  GO TO FULL STORY

CORRUPTION – Colombia – Battling Fraud & Corruption
By leveraging public outrage, the new administration of President Juan Manuel Santos has an opportunity to change Colombia’s “anything goes” culture and attack the scourge of corruption with a new sense of purpose.

Andrés Otero, Miami & Ernesto Carrasco, Bogota GO TO FULL STORY

PRIVATE BANKING – The Good, the Bad & the Ugly
For private bankers, there’s nothing more enticing than the prospect of landing a wealthy foreign client, but the client’s background and source of funds must be carefully analyzed. Often, only an enhanced due diligence will identify the risks.

John Price, Miami GO TO FULL STORY

LAND RIGHTS – Brazil – Sending the Wrong Message
Turning back the clock, the Brazilian government tightens land rights legislation, restricting land purchases for foreign companies and individuals. Real Estated

Paulo Sérgio Franco & Scheila Santos São Paulo  GO TO FULL STORY

Source: Kroll, 14.12.2010

Filed under: Banking, Brazil, Colombia, Latin America, News, Risk Management, Services, Wealth Management, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,