BSE launches new access platform and terminal: Fastrade

Mumbai, Nov 24 (PTI) The Bombay Stock Exchange today launched its new market access platform–Fastrade. Fastrade is a terminal and Internet-based market access solution developed by Marketplace Technologies, a group firm of the BSE, the exchange said in a circular.

However, the current market access solution–BSE On-line Trading BOLT)–provided by the exchange will continue to function on as is basis, the circular added. “Fastrade is being offered in addition to the BOLT. The BOLT will continue to be supported by the BSE,” the bourse said.

For trading on the BSE cash and derivatives segment, the new market access platform will be provided free of cost to all members of the exchange, it added.

Source: Yahoo India, 24.11.2009

Filed under: Asia, Exchanges, India, News, Trading Technology, BSE Bombay Stock Exchange, Exchanges, India, Trading System

Asia:NPLs and SMEs to provide distressed opportunities

Distressed specialists define their terminology and give their take on the market at the second AsianInvestor/FinanceAsia Distressed and Troubled Asset Investing Summit, held in Tokyo.

“What exactly is distress?” reflected AsianInvestor editor Jame DiBiasio at a panel he moderated on Monday at the Tokyo Distressed and Troubled Asset Investing Summit. “Is it a good asset from a distressed seller, or an asset itself that is in bad shape?”

The panel of distressed experts plumped for the former — they want good assets that are being flogged off by an imperilled owner.

“We prefer something that requires re-engineering, assuming that there is some enterprise value left,” said Steve Moyer, a portfolio manager at Pimco. “Banks couldn’t afford to take the losses on clearing portfolios of loans until they rebuild capital. That accomplished, they can begin the process.”

Edwin Wong, a former distressed-investing managing director at Lehman Brothers, and regarded by some in those halcyon days as the finest exponent of distressed investing practice in the hemisphere, recently started his own fund management company, SSG Capital Management.

“Unlike the Asian crisis of the late 1990s, in which all sizes of companies went bankrupt, we’re not seeing it this time around so much with the big companies,” he said. “However, private companies and smaller corporates have built up a lot of leverage, and that’s where we see the main opportunity in China, India and Indonesia.”

In answer to the old conundrum ‘what is the most famous thing that Belgium has ever produced?’, perhaps Michel Lowy will be a contender, if his new firm SC Lowy succeeds.

Lowy says distressed investors have been sharpening their pencils for the past 18 months, expecting lots of deals, only to be disappointed by the available opportunities. He hopes that will change as commercial banks finally bite the bullet and sell off non-performing portfolios.

He also perceives differences geographically in the structure of opportunities on offer. “In North Asia and other sophisticated Asian economies, there is a weighting towards public companies,” Lowy says. “Elsewhere in Asia, there are more family-owned companies. The latter are often in places where the creditor has more limited rights. It’s going to be harder to gain control of a company there by converting debt to equity.”

Source: AsianInvestor.net, 18.11.2009

Filed under: Asia, Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, News, Risk Management, Services, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Asia, China 中国, Distress Debt, Japan, NPL Non Performing Loan, Risk Management

China and India – Himalayas, Water and growing conflicts

The brewing disputes and growing concerns of the Himalayan Region by worlds two most populus nations, is a further indication of increasing dangers of latent resource wars, particularly on water. The continuing desertification in China and migration to coastal region increase pressure. While planned deviation of water ways to Chinese low lands could severely affect South- and South East Asia, see also

• Global Warming affects Asian Financial Hubs -Yangtze faces climate treath
• Antartic ice loss vaster, faster then thought:Study, AFP 24.11.2009

Political Hands across the Himalayas, FT, 15.11.2009

Excerpt: India and China are touted as white knights coming to the rescue of the world economy. Considerable hope rests on these two countries, with fast-paced growth, developing domestic markets and high savings rates, reviving demand and leading other languishing parts of the world out of recession.

The two rising powers, however, may yet be clashing knights. For in New Delhi it is fear of Beijing, rather than partnership, that all too frequently characterises the trans-Himalayan relationship. While some size up trade balances and growth trajectories, others are measuring missile ranges and comparing military parades.

Mr Mishra advised Atul Behari Vajpayee, the former premier. His views, albeit hawkish, are respected by the current Congress party-led government and carry weight with the diplomatic community.

So his recent forecast that India might face a second military front within five years turned heads. The former intelligence chief predicted that India could find itself locked in an armed stand-off simultaneously with Beijing and Pakistan, the traditional rival.

Mr Mishra’s suspicions of China have been newly aroused by Beijing’s warm relationship with Islamabad and its supply of military hardware to Pakistan’s army.

They have also been stoked by territorial claims to Arunachal Pradesh, a north-eastern Indian state, and predictions on Chinese websites that India, a country of huge diversity, is doomed to fall apart.

Mr Mishra says China’s stridency in its territorial ambitions has grown over the past two years to a level not seen since the early 1960s. Moreover, he accuses China of trying to bring into question India’s sovereignty over the state at the international level.

Military strategists interpret China’s policies as a regional power play. They say that tying India up within its own borders prevents it from projecting itself in the region and rivalling China.

In spite of the fighting talk in India, the relationship between India and China holds much more potential than antagonism. China’s impressive record of infrastructure development and lifting people out of poverty holds lessons for India. Likewise, India’s democratic credentials and inclusiveness are instructive to China.

Read full article hear:  15.11. 2009 by James Lamont in New Delhi

The high stakes of melting Himalayan glaciers, CNN 05.10.2009

Execerpt – The glaciers in the Himalayas are receding quicker than those in other parts of the world and could disappear altogether by 2035 according to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. The result of this deglaciation could be conflict as Himalayan glacial runoff has an essential role in the economies, agriculture and even religions of the regions countries.

Satellite data from the Indian Space Applications Center, in Ahmedabad, India, indicates that from 1962 to 2004, more than 1,000 Himalayan glaciers have retreated by around 16 percent. According to the Chinese Academy of Sciences, China’s glaciers have shrunk by 5 percent since 1950s.

Dr. Vandana Shiva, an environmental activist, physicist and leader in the International Forum on Globalization, has just returned from a “Climate Yatra,” a research journey to the Himalayas to study the impact of climate change and the glacial melt upon communities in Asia.

“Himalayan rivers support nearly half of humanity,” Dr. Shiva told CNN. “Everyone who depends on water from the Himalayas will be affected.”

Both India and China are exploring opportunities to harness Himalayan waters for hydroelectric power projects, and while the initial melt promises to provide plenty of water for both sides, the loss of glaciers could lead to water shortages further in the future.

Water-related conflicts have already been witnessed in other parts of the globe such as in the West Bank and in Darfur.

According to Himanshu Thakkar of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People, almost 70 percent of the non-monsoon flows in almost all the Himalayan rivers come from glacier melt.

International water security issues within Asia could be likely since the waters of the Indus, Ganges and the Brahmaptura basins flow into China in the upstream, and are shared across South Asia in the downstream.

Dr. Shiva believes the situation will render major security issues, between India and China particularly, as flows reduce and demands intensify.

Read full article here: CNN, 05.10.2009

 

Filed under: Asia, China, India, Malaysia, News, Risk Management, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, 2012, Agriculture, ASEAN, Black Swan, China 中国, Climate, Confidence Crisis, Environment, Himalaya Region, India, Politics, Resource Crisis, Risk Management, Social Crisis

Mexico the NEW China ?

When it comes to global manufacturing, Mexico is quickly emerging as the “new” China.

According to corporate consultant AlixPartners, Mexico has leapfrogged China to be ranked as the cheapest country in the world for companies looking to manufacture products for the U.S. market. India is now No. 2, followed by China and then Brazil.

In fact, Mexico’s cost advantages and has become so cheap that even Chinese companies are moving there to capitalize on the trade advantages that come from geographic proximity.

The influx of Chinese manufacturers began early in the decade, as China-based firms in the cellular telephone, television, textile and automobile sectors began to establish maquiladora operations in Mexico. By 2005, there were 20-25 Chinese manufacturers operating in such Mexican states Chihuahua, Tamaulipas and Baja.

The investments were generally small, but the operations had managed to create nearly 4,000 jobs, Enrique Castro Septien, president of the Consejo Nacional de la Industria Maquiladora de Exportacion (CNIME), told the SourceMex news portal in a 2005 interview.

China’s push into Mexico became more concentrated, with China-based automakers Zhongxing Automobile Co., First Automotive Works (in partnership with Mexican retail/media heavyweight Grupo Salinas), Geely Automobile Holdings (PINK: GELYF) and ChangAn Automobile Group Co. Ltd. (the Chinese partner of Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and Suzuki Motor Corp.), all announced plans to place automaking factories in Mexico.

Not all the plans would come to fruition. But Geely’s plan called for a three-phase project that would ultimately involve a $270 million investment and have a total annual capacity of 300,000 vehicles. ChangAn wants to churn out 50,000 vehicles a year. Both companies are taking these steps with the ultimate goal of selling cars to U.S. consumers.

Mexico’s allure as a production site that can serve the U.S. market isn’t limited to China-based suitors. U.S. companies are increasingly realizing that Mexico is a better option than China. Analysts are calling it “nearshoring” or “reverse globalization.” But the reality is this: With wages on the rise in China, ongoing worries about whipsaw energy and commodity prices, and a dollar-yuan relationship that’s destined to get much uglier before it has a chance of improving, manufacturers with an eye on the American market are increasingly realizing that Mexico trumps China in virtually every equation the producers run.

“China was like a recent graduate, hitting the job market for the first time and willing to work for next to nothing,” Mexico-manufacturing consultant German Dominguez told the Christian Science Monitor in an interview last year. But now China is experiencing “the perfect storm … it’s making Mexico – a country that had been the ugly duckling when it came to costs – look a lot better.”

The real eye opener was a 2008 speculative frenzy that sent crude oil prices up to a record level in excess of $147 a barrel – an escalation that caused shipping prices to soar. Suddenly, the labor cost advantage China enjoyed wasn’t enough to overcome the costs of shipping finished goods thousands of miles from Asia to North America. And that reality kick-started the concept of “nearshoring,” concluded an investment research report by Canadian investment bank CIBC World Markets Inc. (NYSE: CM)

“In a world of triple-digit oil prices, distance costs money,” the CIBC research analysts wrote. “And while trade liberalization and technology may have flattened the world, rising transport prices will once again make it rounder.”

Indeed, four factors are at work here.

Mexico’s “Fab Four”

• The U.S.-Mexico Connection: There’s no question that China’s role in the post-financial-crisis world economy will continue to grow in importance. But contrary to the conventional wisdom, U.S. firms still export three times as much to Mexico as they do to China. Mexico gets 75% of its foreign direct investment from the United States, and sends 85% of its exports back across U.S. borders. As China’s cost and currency advantages dissipate, the fact that the United States and Mexico are right next to one another makes it logical to keep the factories in this hemisphere – if for no other reason that to shorten the supply chain and to hold down shipping costs. This is particularly important for companies like Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Whirlpool Corp. (NYSE: WHR) and even the beleaguered auto parts maker Delphi Corp. (PINK: DPHIQ) which are involved in just-in-time manufacturing that requires parts be delivered only as fast as they are needed.
• The Lost Cost Advantage: A decade or more ago, in any discussion of manufactured product costs, Asia was hands-down the low-cost producer. That’s a given no more. Recent reports – including the analysis by AlixPartners – show that Asia’s production costs are 15% or 20% higher than they were just four years ago. A U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report from March reaches the same conclusion. Compensation costs in East Asia – a region that includes China but excludes Japan – rose from 32% of U.S. wages in 2002 to 43% in 2007, the most recent statistics available. And since wages are advancing at a rate of 8% to 9% a year, and many types of taxes are escalating, too, East Asia’s overall costs have no doubt escalated even more in the two years since the BLS figures were reported.
• The Creeping Currency Crisis: For the past few years, U.S. elected officials and corporate executives alike have groused that China keeps its currency artificially low to boost its exports, while also reducing U.S. imports. The U.S. trade deficit with China has soared, growing by $20.2 billion in August alone to reach $143 billion so far this year. The currency debate will be part of the discussion when U.S. President Barack Obama visits China starting Monday. Because China’s yuan has strengthened so much, goods made in China may not be the bargain they once were. Those currency crosscurrents aren’t a problem with the U.S. and Mexico, however. As of Monday, the dollar was down about 15% from its March 2009 high. At the same time, however, the Mexican peso had dropped 20% versus the dollar. So while the yuan was getting stronger as the dollar got cheaper, the peso was getting even cheaper versus the dollar.
• Trade Alliance Central: Everyone’s familiar with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).  But not everyone understands the impact that NAFTA has had. It isn’t just window-dressing: Mexico’s trade with the United States and Canada has tripled since NAFTA was enacted in 1994. What’s more, Mexico has 12 free-trade agreements that involve more than 40 countries – more than any other country and enough to cover more than 90% of the country’s foreign trade. Its goods can be exported – duty-free – to the United States, Canada, the European Union, most of Central and Latin America, and to Japan.

In the global scheme of things, what I am telling you here probably won’t be a game-changer when it comes to China. That country is an economic juggernaut and is a market that U.S. investors cannot afford to ignore.  Given China’s emerging strength and its increasingly dominant financial position, it’s going to have its own consumer markets to service for decades to come.

Two Profit Play Candidates

From a regional standpoint, these developments all show that we’re in the earliest stages of what could be an even-closer Mexican/American relationship – enhancing the existing trade partnership in ways that benefit companies on both sides of the border (even companies that hail from other parts of the world).

In the meantime, we’ll be watching for signs of a resurgent Mexican manufacturing industry that’s ultimately driven by Chinese companies – because we know the American companies doing business with them will enjoy the fruits of their labor.

Since this is an early stage opportunity best for investors capable of stomaching some serious volatility, we’ll be watching for those Mexican companies likely to benefit from the capital that’s being newly deployed in their backyard.

Two of my favorite choices include:

• Wal Mart de Mexico SAB de CV (OTC ADR: WMMVY): Also known as “Walmex,” this retailer has all the advantages of investing in its U.S. counterpart – albeit with a couple of twists. Walmex’s third-quarter profits were up 18% and the company just started accepting bank deposits, a service that should boost store traffic. And while the U.S. retail market is highly saturated – which limits growth opportunities – there are still plenty of places to build Walmex stores south of the border. After all, somebody has to sell products to all those thousands of workers likely to be involved in the growing maquiladora sector.
• Coca-Cola FEMSA SAB de CV (NYSE ADR: KOF): Things truly do go better with Coke – especially higher wages and an improved lifestyle. According to Reuters, Mexicans now consume more Coca-Cola beverages per capita than any other nation in the world. The company just posted a 25% jump in its third-quarter net earnings, aided by a strong 21% jump in revenue. Coca-Cola FEMSA continues to experience strong growth from its Oxxo convenience stores, and strong beer sales, too. And all three product groups are logical beneficiaries of strong maquiladora development and the growing incomes and rising family wealth that will translate into higher consumer spending in the immediately surrounding areas.

Source: Money Morning, 13.11.2009 by Keith Fitz-Gerald, Chief Investment Strategist,  Money Morning/The Money Map Report

Filed under: Brazil, China, Countries, India, Latin America, Mexico, News, BMV Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, Brazil, China 中国, Currency, Export, FOREX, FTA Free Trade Agreements, FX Foreign Exchange, Import, India, Manufacture, MexDer, Mexican Pesos, Mexico, Trade, USA, Walmex

Global warming threat for Asia financial hubs – Yangtze ‘facing climate threat’

The report, produced by WWF, the environmental pressure group, puts the two financial hubs in the top 10 cities threatened by climate change in Asia, the region widely believed to be most vulnerable to rising global temperatures.

It warns that Hong Kong is in danger from higher sea levels, which are likely to rise 40cm-60cm in China’s Pearl River delta by 2050, increasing the area of coastline that is vulnerable to flooding by up to six times.

Costs imposed by typhoons are also likely to rise dramatically, the report says, noting that 14 of the 21 extreme storm surges between 1950 and 2004 occurred after 1986.

The number of nights when Hong Kong temperatures rise above 28°C has risen almost fourfold since the 1960s, while the number of winter nights when the temperature falls below 12°C is predicted to fall from an average of 21 to zero within 50 years.

For Singapore, the report says, the sea level is forecast to rise by 60cm by the end of the century, eroding coastal protection and decreasing the shoreline of the city state, making it more vulnerable to storm surges and flooding.

The report says climate change could also increase the prevalence of dengue fever. The number of cases has been rising in periodic outbreaks and the last significant peak, in 2007, saw the third highest number of outbreaks ever.

Dhaka, the Bangladeshi capital, heads the list of the most vulnerable cities, mainly because of its position in a big river delta already subject to periodic flooding, its low average height above sea level and its poverty, which makes protection and adaptation more difficult.

Other cities at risk include Jakarta and Manila, which rank equal second, Calcutta and Phnom Penh, which are equal third, Ho Chi Minh and Shanghai, equal fourth, Bangkok, fifth, and Kuala Lumpur, which ties with Hong Kong and Singapore for sixth place.

The report calls on developed countries to agree to shoulder the bulk of the costs required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, to finance an adaptation fund to pay for changes required in developing countries, and to provide recompense for losses and damage caused by climate-related catastrophes.

However, the report also says that vulnerable cities and national governments should take action themselves, including better management of coastal habitats and ecosystems.

The report is timed to influence the 21 heads of government attending this week’s Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Singapore, before the global climate change summit in Copenhagen next month.

Source: FT, 11.11 2009 by Kevin Brown in Singapore

The Yangtze river basin is being increasingly affected by extreme weather and its ecosystems are under threat, environmentalists say.

In a new report, WWF-China says the temperature in the basin area of China’s longest river has risen steadily over the past two decades.

This has led to an increase in flooding, heat waves and drought.

Further temperature rises will have a disastrous effect on biodiversity in and along the river, the report says.

The WWF – formerly known as the World Wildlife Fund – predicts that in the next 50 years temperatures will go up by between 1.5C and 2C.

The group’s report is the largest assessment yet of the impact of global warming on the Yangtze River Basin, where about 400 million people live.

Data was collected from 147 monitoring stations. The report’s lead researcher, Xu Ming, said the forthcoming Copenhagen negotiations on climate change would have an obvious and direct influence on the Yangtze.

“Controlling the future emissions of greenhouse gases will benefit the Yangtze river basin, at the very least from the perspective of drought and water resources,” he said.

The report says the predicted weather events and temperature rises will lead to declines in crop production, and rising sea levels will make coastal cities such as Shanghai vulnerable.

Some of the problems could be averted by strengthening river reinforcements, and switching to hardier crops, its authors suggest.

Source: BBC, 10.11.2009

Filed under: Asia, China, Energy & Environment, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, News, Risk Management, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, 2012, Agriculture, Asia, Asia Strategy, Bangkok, Bangladesh, Calcutta, China 中国, Climate, Commodities, Confidence Crisis, Environment, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Jakarta, Japan, Manila, Philippines, Risk Management, Shanghai, Singapore, Thailand, Tokyo, Vietnam, Yangtze River

Why China and Japan Need an East Asia Bloc

Withering exports and asset bubbles have forced Asians – especially China and Japan — to work harder at free trade pacts.

All kinds of proposals have been floated about creating an Asian bloc a la European Union. Bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements (FTA) have been suggested for various combinations of Asian countries. Lately, there’s been a flurry of new ideas as Japan’s recently installed DPJ government seeks to differentiate from the ousted LDP.

By promoting ideas that lean toward Asia, DPJ’s leadership is signaling that Japan wants less dependence on the United States. This position offers a hope for the future to Japanese people, whose economy has been comatose for two decades. Closer integration with Asian neighbors could restore growth in Japan.

Whenever global trade gets into trouble, Asian countries talk about regional cooperation as an alternative growth driver. But typically these talks die out as soon as global trade recovers. Today’s chatter is following the same old pattern, although this time global trade is not on track to recover to previous levels and sustain East Asia’s export model. Thus, some sort of regional integration is needed to revive regional growth.

Which regional organization is in a position to lead an integration movement? Certainly not ASEAN, which is too small, nor APEC, which is too big. Something more is needed – like a bloc rooted in a trade pact between Japan and China.

ASEAN’s members are 10 countries in Southeast Asia with a population exceeding 600 million and a combined GDP of US$ 1.5 trillion in 2008. The group embraced an FTA process called AFTA in 1992, which accelerated after the 1997-’98 Asian Financial Crisis and competition with China heated up. When AFTA began, few gave it much chance for success, given the region’s huge disparities in per capita income and economic systems. Today AFTA is almost a reality, which is certainly a miracle.

ASEAN has succeeded beyond its wildest dreams. These days China, Japan, and South Korea join annual meetings as dialogue partners, while the European Union and United States participate in regional forums and bilateral discussions.

China and ASEAN completed FTA negotiations last year, demonstrating that they can function as an economic bloc. Now, China is ASEAN’s third largest trading partner. Indeed, there is a great upside for economic cooperation between the two.

Before the Asian Financial Crisis, the ASEAN region was touted as a “miracle” by international financial institutions for maintaining high GDP growth rates for more than two decades. But some of that growth was built on a bubble that diverted business away from production and toward asset speculation. This developed after credit expansion, driven by the pegging of regional currencies to the U.S. dollar, encouraged land speculation. ASEAN’s emerging economies absorbed massive cross-border capital due to a weak dollar, which slumped after the Federal Reserve responded to a U.S. banking crisis in the early 1990s by maintaining low interest rates.

Back then, I visited companies in the region that produced goods for export. I found that, despite all the talk of miracles, many were making money on financial games — not business. At that time, China was building an export sector that had started exerting downward pressure on tradable goods prices. Instead of focusing on competitiveness, the region hid behind a financial bubble and postponed a resolution. Indeed, ASEAN’s GDP was higher than China’s before the Asian financial crunch; now China’s GDP is three times ASEAN’s.

China today faces challenges similar to those confronting ASEAN before the crisis. While visiting manufacturers in China, I’ve often been discovering that their profits come from property development, lending or outright speculation. While asset prices rise, these practices are effectively subsidizing manufacturing operations – an asset game that can work wonderfully in the short term, as the U.S. experience demonstrates. When property and stock markets are worth more than twice GDP, 20 percent appreciation would be equivalent to four years of business profits in a normal economy. You can’t blame businesses for shifting their attention to the asset game in a bubbly environment. Yet as they focus on finance rather than manufacturing, their competitiveness erodes. And you know where that leads.

I digress from the main focus for this article — regional integration, not China’s bubble challenge.

So let’s look again at ASEAN’s success. In part, this reflects its soft image: Other major players do not view ASEAN as a competitive threat. Rather, the FTA with China has put pressure on majors such as India and Japan to pursue their own FTAs with ASEAN. Another dimension is that the region’s annual meetings have become important occasions for representatives from China, Japan and South Korea to sit down together.

In contrast to ASEAN’s success, APEC has been an abject failure.
Today, it’s simply a photo opportunity for leaders of member countries from the Americas, Oceania, Russia and Asia. APEC was set up after the Soviet bloc collapsed, and served a psychological purpose during the post-Cold War transition. It was reassuring for the global community to see leaders of former enemy countries shaking hands.

However, APEC is just too big and diverse to provide a foundation for building a trade structure. So general is the scope that anything APEC members agree upon would probably pass the United Nations. Now, two decades after end of the Cold War, APEC has clearly outlived its usefulness and is withering, although it may never shut down. APEC’s annual summit still offers leaders of member countries a venue for meetings on the sidelines to discuss bilateral issues. Maybe the group is useful in this way, offering an efficient venue for multiple summits concurrently.

Although ASEAN has succeeded with its own agenda, and achieved considerable success in relation to non-member countries, it clearly cannot assume the same role as the European Union. Besides, should Asia have an EU-like organization? Asia, by definition, clearly cannot. It’s a geographic region that includes the sub-continent, Middle East and central Asia. Any organization that encompasses Asia as a whole would be as unwieldy as APEC.

I am always puzzled by the word “Asia,” which the Greeks coined. In his classic work Histories, it seems ancient Greek historian Herodotus primarily referred to Asia Minor — today’s Turkey, and perhaps Syria — as Asia. I haven’t read much Greek, but I don’t recall India being included in ancient Greek references. So as far as I can determine, there is no internal logic to treating Asia as a region. It seems to encompass all places that are neither European nor African. Africa is a coherent continent, and Europe has a shared cultural past. Asia belongs to neither, so it shouldn’t be considered an organic entity.

Malaysia’s former prime minister Tun Mahathir bin Mohamad Mahathir was a strong supporter of an East Asia Economic Caucus (EAEC) which would have been comprised of ASEAN nations plus China, Japan and South Korea. But because Japan refused to participate in an organization that excluded the United States, the idea failed.

Yet there is some logic to Mahathir’s proposal. East Asia has a shared history, and intra-regional trade goes back centuries. Population movements have been significant, and as tourism takes off, regional relations should strengthen. One could envision a future marked by free-flowing capital, goods and labor in the region.

Yet differences among the region’s countries are much greater than in Europe. ASEAN’s overall per capita income is US$ 2,000, while it’s US$ 3,500 in China and US$ 40,000 in Japan. China, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam share Confucianism and Mahayana Buddhism, while most Southeast Asian countries embrace Islam or Hinayana Buddhism, and generally are more religious. I think an EU-like organization in East Asia would be very hard to establish, but something less restrictive would be possible.

Because Japan turned down Mahathir’s EAEC idea, there was a lot of interest when recently elected Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s proposed something similar – an East Asia Community — at a recent ASEAN summit. Hatoyama failed to clarify the role of the United States in any such organization. If the United States is included, it would not fly, as it would be too similar to APEC. Nor could such an organization be like the EU. But if Japan is fully committed, the new group could assume substance over time.

The Japanese probably proposed the community idea for domestic political reasons. Yet the fundamental case for Japan to increase integration with the rest of Asia and away from the United States grows stronger every day. Despite high per capita income, Japan remains an export-oriented economy, having missed an opportunity to develop a consumption-led economy in the 1980s and ’90s. In the foolish belief that rising property prices would spread wealth beyond the industrial heartland in the Tokyo-Osaka corridor, the government of former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka pursued a high-price land policy, discouraging the middle class from pursuing a consumer lifestyle as they saved for property purchases.

Even more seriously, high property prices have been a major reason for Japan’s rapidly declining birth rate, as land prices inflated living costs. Now, facing a declining population and public debt twice GDP, Japan has few options for rejuvenating the economy by promoting domestic demand. It needs trade if it hopes to achieve any growth at all. Without growth, Japan will sooner or later suffer a public debt crisis.

Japan’s property experience offers a major lesson for China. Every Chinese city is copying the Hong Kong model — raising money from an increasingly expensive land market to fund urban development, leading to rapid urbanization. But this is borrowing growth from the future. Rising land prices lead to rising costs and, hence, slower growth and the same rapid decline in the birth rate that Japan experienced. Unless China reverses its high-land price policy, the consequences will be even more disastrous than in Japan or Hong Kong, as China shifted to the asset game much earlier in its development.

Yet I digress again. The point is that Japan has a strong and genuine case that favors more integration with East Asia. The United States is unlikely to recover soon and with enough strength to feed Japan’s export machine again. There is no more room for fiscal stimulus. Devaluing the yen to gain market share is not an option as long as Washington pursues a weak dollar policy. Without a new source of trade, Japan’s economy is doomed. Closer integration with East Asia is the only way out.

In addition to Hatoyama’s EAC proposal, a study jointly sponsored by China, Japan and South Korea is considering the possibility of a FTA. Of course, ASEAN could offer a template for any new East Asian bloc. ASEAN has signed an FTA with China and is talking with Japan and South Korea. If they all sign, regional integration would be halfway completed.

Whatever proposals for East Asian integration, the key issue is a possible FTA between China and Japan. Adding other parties avoids this main issue. China and Japan together are six times ASEAN’s size and 10 times South Korea’s. Without a China-Japan FTA, no combination in East Asia would truly support regional integration.

Five years ago, I wrote an op-ed piece for the Financial Times entitled China and Japan: Natural Partners. At the time, a prevailing sentiment was that China and Japan were antithetical: Both were still manufacturing export-led economies and could only gain at the other’s expense. I saw complementary demographics and capital: Japan had a declining labor force and China needed to employ tens of millions of youths migrating to cities from the countryside. China needed capital and Japan had surplus capital. And their trade relations indeed tightened, as Japan had increased the Chinese share of its overall trade to 17.4 percent in 2008 from 10.4 percent in ’04.

Today, the situation has changed. China has a capital surplus rather than a shortage. Demographic complementarity is still good and could last another decade. As China shifts its development model from resource intensive to environmentally friendly, a new complementarity is emerging. Japan has already made the transition, and its technologies that supported the transition need a new market such as China’s. So even without a new trade agreement, bilateral trade will continue growing.

An FTA between China and Japan would significantly accelerate their trade, resulting in an efficiency gain of more than US$ 1 trillion. Japan’s aging population lends urgency to increasing the investment returns. On the other hand, as China prepares to make a numerical commitment to limiting greenhouse gas emissions at the upcoming Copenhagen summit on global warming, heavy investment and rapid restructuring are needed for its economy. Japanese technology could come in quite handy.

More importantly, a China-Japan FTA would lay a foundation for an East Asian free trade bloc. The region has a population of 2.1 billion and a GDP of US$ 13 trillion, rivaling the European Union and United States. Blessed with a low base, plenty of capital, sound technology and a huge market, the region’s GDP could easily double in a decade.

Trade and technology are twin engines of growth and prosperity. No boom is sustained without one or the other. And when they come together, the boom can be massive. Prosperity seen over the past decade, for example, is due to information technology along with the opening up of China and other former planned economies. But these factors have been absorbed, forcing the world to find another engine. An integration of East Asian economies would be significant enough to play this role.

The best approach would be for China and Japan to negotiate a comprehensive FTA that encompasses free-flowing goods, services and capital. This task may appear too difficult, but recent changes have made it possible. The two countries should give it a try.

It would be wrong to begin by working out an FTA that includes China, Japan and South Korea. That would triple the task’s level of difficulty, especially since South Korea doesn’t have a meaningful FTA with any country. To imagine that the Seoul government would cut a deal with China or Japan is naive. China and Japan should negotiate bilaterally.

A key issue is that China and Japan should put economics before politics. If the DPJ government wants to gain popularity by increasing international influence rather than boosting the economy, then all the current speculation and discussion about an East Asia bloc would be for nothing. But if DPJ wants to sustain power by rejuvenating Japan’s moribund economy, chances for a deal are good.

While Japan is talking, China should be doing. China should aggressively initiate the FTA process with Japan. Regardless of China’s current difficulties, its growth potential and vast market are what Japan will never have at home nor anywhere else. Hence, China would be able to compromise from a position of strength.

Some may say a free trade area for East Asia is beyond reach. However, history belongs to the daring. The world has changed enough to make it possible. China and Japan should seize the opportunity.

Source: Caijing, 10.11.2009 by Andy Xie, guest economist to Caijing and a board member of Rosetta Stone Advisors Ltd.

Full article in Chinese

Filed under: Asia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, News, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Agriculture, Andy Xie, ASEAN, Asia, Asset Management, Caijing, China 中国, Exchanges, Export, Exportacion a Asia, Hong Kong, Import, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Manufacture, Middle East, Politics, Real Estate, Regulators, Risk Management, SGX Singapore Stock Exchange, Trade, Vietnam

Tokyo Stock Exchange lists Indian ETF – S&P CNX Nifty linked ETF

Today, the Tokyo Stock Exchange approved the listing of the “NEXT FUNDS S&P CNX Nifty Linked Exchange Traded Fund” managed by Nomura Asset Management Co., Ltd.. The ETF is planned to be listed on Thursday, November 26, 2009.

This is the first ETF linked to Indian stocks to be listed on markets in Japan. The “S&P CNX Nifty Index” to which the ETF is linked is comprised of the 50 premier issues of the National Stock Exchange of India.

Code	1678 (ISIN JP3047100007)
Name	NEXT FUNDS S&P CNX Nifty Linked Exchange Traded Fund
Fund Administrator	Nomura Asset Management
Listing Date	November 26, 2009
Trading Unit	100 units
Underlying Index	S&P CNX Nifty Index

TSE entered into a memorandum of understanding with the National Stock Exchange of India on October 15, 2006. Through this ETF, TSE hopes to supply investors with better access to the Indian securities market and contribute to the development of the markets in both of our countries.

With this listing there will be a total of 69 ETFs listed on the Tokyo market, bringing us closer to the goal of 100 listed ETFs by fiscal year 2010, as laid out in the Medium-Term Management Plan. TSE will continue working to diversify the ETF market and improve the convenience of our market for all investors.

Additional ETF’s listed in Tokyo include Brazil’s IBOVESPA, China A Share CSI300 as well as  ETC (Exchange Trade Commodities) like Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium. See also TSE lists Brazilian ETF.

Tokyo Stock Exchange officel ETF site
ETFs on TSE November 2009 (.doc and .cvs)

Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange 06.11.2009

Filed under: Asia, Exchanges, India, Japan, News, Asia, BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, China 中国, Commodities, CSI China Securities Index, ETC Exchange Traded Commodities, ETF, Exchanges, FTSE Group, Gold, Index, India, Japan, Listing, NIFTY, NIKKEI, Nomura, Palladium, Platinum, REIT, S&P Standard & Poor, Silver, TOPIX, Trade, TSE Tokyo Stock Exchange

India: Religare Technova associates with Fix Protocol

New Dehli, October 26,2009: The entry of FIX Protocol into India couldn’t be at a more opporune moment. It signifies the maturity in the Indian capital market vis-a-vis global markets.

FIX is an unexplored area in India and Religare Technova Global Solutions Limited (RTGSL) has identified it as its key focus in its current strategy. To further reiterate its commitment to the domain, the company is also sponsoring the FIX Protocol Face2Face event in Mumbai on October 29, 2009.

In conjunction with the sponsorship, Daniel Burgin, CEO – MetaBit, a business partner of Religare Technova, has also been invited to share his views at the event. Metabit is a major provider of FIX based high speed, low latency global order routing execution services based out of Japan. Metabit is also a specialist in the provision of program trading consultancy and provides a Global ASP solution.

In the past, systems have been interacting with each other using proprietary communication protocols for data interchange. This has always made systems very rigid and inflexible to change. FIX is the global standard for financial information interchange. FIX allows myriad systems to interchange vast varieties of data by channelizing them through a common standardized protocol.

Globally, few organizations have been early adopters of the Financial Protocol. However in India, FIX is in a nascent concept. Religare Technova is blazing the trail in bringing FIX to India and by incorporating FIX into its Products Suite.

According to Ralph Horne, CEO, Religare Technova Global Solutions Pty Ltd, “Continuous improvement and research on FIX by the open source environment has contributed significantly to the growth of the engine and provides the flexibility to add more functionalities with continuous performance improvement over a period of time. We look forward to being pioneers in bringing this into India.”

Source: Religare, 26.10.2009

Filed under: Asia, FIX Connectivity, India, Japan, News, Trading Technology, Daniel Burgin, FIX, India, MetaBit, Order Routing, Ralph Horne, Religare Technova, Trade Connectivity

Asia’s affluent lose one-fifth of wealth in 2008 – CapGemini-Merryll Lynch Asia Wealth Report 2009

Hong Kong’s high-net-worth crowd were the hardest hit by the financial crisis, according to the annual wealth report from Capgemini and Merrill Lynch.

It was perhaps inevitable that after experiencing such rapid wealth growth in the past few years, Asia’s high-net-worth individuals suffered particularly keenly from the recent crisis. But there is still huge market potential in the region for those wealth advisory firms able to tap it.  Download: Asia-Pacific_Wealth_Report_2009_CapG_ML

The wealth of the region’s high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) — those with $1 million or more in investable assets — fell by 22.3% to $7.4 trillion last year, below the level in 2006. That compares to a fall of 19.5% for global HNWI wealth, according to the 2009 Asia-Pacific Wealth Report, released yesterday by consulting firm Capgemini and Merrill Lynch.

Hong Kong HNWIs saw by far the biggest drop, losing 65.4% of their wealth, followed by those in Australia (29.7%), Singapore (29.4%) and India (29.0%). South Koreans got off lightest with a 13.4% decline in asset value, while Japan saw a fall of 16.7%.

In terms of market capitalisation, the Asia-Pacific region as a whole saw an average fall of 48.6% last year, with China (60.3%) and India (64.1%) suffering the biggest declines of the countries surveyed*.

With regard to asset allocation, the report noted three key trends. First, Asian HNWIs undertook a ‘flight to safety’ to cash-like assets with their allocation to cash-based investments rising to 29% in 2008 from 25% the year before. This reflected an increase in the global allocation to cash in 2008 to 21% from 17% in 2007. Taiwan had the highest allocation to cash/deposits at 41% of its total portfolio, while India had by far the least with 13%.

Another trend was an opportunistic shift back to real estate investment with an allocation of 22% in 2008, up from 20% the year before. Regionally, Australia had the highest allocation to real estate (41%), closely followed by South Korea (38%), while Taiwan had the least (15%).

As for other asset classes, India had the largest allocation to equities (32%), despite the heavy fall in the country’s stock market last year, while South Korea had the smallest (13%). And, perhaps surprisingly, Indonesia had the largest allocation to alternative investments (9%), covering structured products, hedge funds, derivatives, foreign currency, commodities, private equity and venture capital.

The third broad trend noted by the report was a retreat to home-region and domestic investments with HNWIs increasing their domestic investments to 67% in 2008 from 53% the year before. China was the top Asian market for investment by HNWIs in Asia-Pacific ex-Japan, while their peers in Japan preferred to invest domestically.

Allocations to mature markets are likely to increase through 2010 as Asia-Pacific HNWIs seek more stable returns. Allocations to North America, for example, are predicted to rise from 17% last year to 20% in 2010.

In terms of diversity of geographic distribution of investments, Japanese HNWIs were the most diversified beyond Asia in 2008 with 45% of their allocation outside the Asia-Pacific region. The least diversified were the Chinese with a 17% allocation outside Asia-Pacific, and India with a mere 14% invested outside the region.

On a wider level, the crisis resulted in many Asian clients shifting their assets towards regional and local firms, changing the competitive landscape. Such moves exposed “weaknesses in the capabilities of the region’s wealth management firms and especially revealed the disparate strengths and weaknesses of international firms versus regional and local competitors”, says the report.

In terms of the challenges faced by wealth management firms in Asia, they feel maintaining client trust/client retention is by far the biggest concern, according to a Capgemini survey carried out during July and August. Eighty-five percent of wealth management advisers cited this as the biggest challenge they face as a result of the crisis, and 45% cited as the next major issue the need to have the right skill set and talent to cater to HNWI clients.

A closer look at the issue of client attrition shows that 42% of wealth advisers lost clients last year; 63% of those advisers employed an individual-adviser model, while 37% used a team-based model. Meanwhile, younger advisers tended to lose more clients than older ones with 62% of those who lost clients being 40 or under. “Advisers were not mature enough to handle the intense market conditions,” says the report.

Experience is clearly key, and advisers in the Asia-Pacific region were less well able to handle the economic turmoil. The average amount of experience for the region was 9.7 years, versus the global average of 13.3 years. Wealth management firms need to remedy this situation if they are to make the most of the untapped market potential in China, India and elsewhere in the region.

* The report focuses on 11 markets: Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. Together, these account for 95.3% of Asia-Pacific gross domestic product.

Source: Asian Investor, 14.10.2009

Filed under: Asia, Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, Library, News, Services, Singapore, Thailand, Wealth Management, Asia, Asia Strategy, Australia, China 中国, Hedge Fund, HNWI High Net Worth Individuals, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Market Analysis, Real Estate, Risk Management, Singapore, Taiwan, Wealth Management

The Demise of the Dollar, Robert Frisk

In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading

By Robert Fisk

October 06, 2009 “The Independent” — — In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars. The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.

The Americans, who are aware the meetings have taken place – although they have not discovered the details – are sure to fight this international cabal which will include hitherto loyal allies Japan and the Gulf Arabs. Against the background to these currency meetings, Sun Bigan, China’s former special envoy to the Middle East, has warned there is a risk of deepening divisions between China and the US over influence and oil in the Middle East. “Bilateral quarrels and clashes are unavoidable,” he told the Asia and Africa Review. “We cannot lower vigilance against hostility in the Middle East over energy interests and security.”

This sounds like a dangerous prediction of a future economic war between the US and China over Middle East oil – yet again turning the region’s conflicts into a battle for great power supremacy. China uses more oil incrementally than the US because its growth is less energy efficient. The transitional currency in the move away from dollars, according to Chinese banking sources, may well be gold. An indication of the huge amounts involved can be gained from the wealth of Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar who together hold an estimated $2.1 trillion in dollar reserves.

The decline of American economic power linked to the current global recession was implicitly acknowledged by the World Bank president Robert Zoellick. “One of the legacies of this crisis may be a recognition of changed economic power relations,” he said in Istanbul ahead of meetings this week of the IMF and World Bank. But it is China’s extraordinary new financial power – along with past anger among oil-producing and oil-consuming nations at America’s power to interfere in the international financial system – which has prompted the latest discussions involving the Gulf states.

Brazil has shown interest in collaborating in non-dollar oil payments, along with India. Indeed, China appears to be the most enthusiastic of all the financial powers involved, not least because of its enormous trade with the Middle East.

China imports 60 per cent of its oil, much of it from the Middle East and Russia. The Chinese have oil production concessions in Iraq – blocked by the US until this year – and since 2008 have held an $8bn agreement with Iran to develop refining capacity and gas resources. China has oil deals in Sudan (where it has substituted for US interests) and has been negotiating for oil concessions with Libya, where all such contracts are joint ventures.

Furthermore, Chinese exports to the region now account for no fewer than 10 per cent of the imports of every country in the Middle East, including a huge range of products from cars to weapon systems, food, clothes, even dolls. In a clear sign of China’s growing financial muscle, the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, yesterday pleaded with Beijing to let the yuan appreciate against a sliding dollar and, by extension, loosen China’s reliance on US monetary policy, to help rebalance the world economy and ease upward pressure on the euro.

Ever since the Bretton Woods agreements – the accords after the Second World War which bequeathed the architecture for the modern international financial system – America’s trading partners have been left to cope with the impact of Washington’s control and, in more recent years, the hegemony of the dollar as the dominant global reserve currency.

The Chinese believe, for example, that the Americans persuaded Britain to stay out of the euro in order to prevent an earlier move away from the dollar. But Chinese banking sources say their discussions have gone too far to be blocked now. “The Russians will eventually bring in the rouble to the basket of currencies,” a prominent Hong Kong broker told The Independent. “The Brits are stuck in the middle and will come into the euro. They have no choice because they won’t be able to use the US dollar.”

Chinese financial sources believe President Barack Obama is too busy fixing the US economy to concentrate on the extraordinary implications of the transition from the dollar in nine years’ time. The current deadline for the currency transition is 2018.

The US discussed the trend briefly at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh; the Chinese Central Bank governor and other officials have been worrying aloud about the dollar for years. Their problem is that much of their national wealth is tied up in dollar assets.

“These plans will change the face of international financial transactions,” one Chinese banker said. “America and Britain must be very worried. You will know how worried by the thunder of denials this news will generate.”

Iran announced late last month that its foreign currency reserves would henceforth be held in euros rather than dollars. Bankers remember, of course, what happened to the last Middle East oil producer to sell its oil in euros rather than dollars. A few months after Saddam Hussein trumpeted his decision, the Americans and British invaded Iraq.

Source: The Independent, 06.10.2009

Filed under: Asia, Brazil, China, Energy & Environment, India, Japan, Latin America, News, Risk Management, Black Swan, Brazil, China 中国, Confidence Crisis, Credit Crisis, Currency, Currency Crisis, Economic Crisis, Energy, Financial Crisis, FX Foreign Exchange, IMF, India, Middle East, Politics, Risk Management, Robert Frisk, Russia, Uncertainty, USA

India: Exchange big hitters in battle for market share

India’s stock exchange heavyweights – the National Stock Exchange and the Bombay Stock Exchange – are gearing up for a fight for market share.

Spurred on by the threat of competition from new entrants and the prospect that India’s economy will continue to see growth of at least 7 per cent over the next few years, the NSE and BSE have announced a series of new products, hires and alliances.

India’s benchmark Sensex index has risen more than 70 per cent so far this year, making it one of the 10 best performing markets around the world. GDP, meanwhile, grew 6.1 per cent in the three months to the end of June, indicating the economy may have bottomed out.

The timing of the rebound, in the economy and stock market, could not be better for Madhu Kannan, chief executive of the BSE, the oldest of India’s more than 20 or so exchanges.

The appointment of Mr Kannan, who was only 36 when he took over in May, marked something of a change of strategy for an exchange that has been struggling to regain market share since its cross-town rival the NSE burst on to the scene nearly 15 years ago.

Before its arrival, the BSE had 80 per cent of the market. In 12 months the NSE hit the same level and the BSE has been trying to claw back market share ever since.

Mr Kannan hopes to upgrade the exchange’s technology, improve client relationships and make better use of its existing relationships with the Singapore stock exchange and Deutsche Börse.

In August, the BSE announced it had taken a 15 per cent stake in the newly formed United Stock Exchange to help drive the development and growth of both interest rate and currency derivatives markets. It will also start trading interest rate futures in the next couple of months.

But the NSE has pipped it to the post, becoming the first exchange, at the end of August, to resume trading in interest rate futures. A previous attempt to introduce the contract flopped in 2003 due to pricing issues and the regulator’s failure to allow banks to trade the product. The new contracts can now be traded by banks and are open to some foreign participation.

Ravi Narain, chief executive of the NSE, is upbeat about the exchange’s ability to grow and innovate and says he welcomes competition. He also wants the exchange to offer a full range of asset classes.

Since 2000, the NSE has, among other things, rolled out internet trading, exchange traded funds, a volatility index and currency futures. It is also looking at creating a platform for small and medium-sized enterprises, and appears to be responding to increased competition where it hurts. It said this month it would lower trading costs in futures and options and cash segments by 10 per cent.

Adding to the pressure on the NSE and BSE is the arrival of a significant new entrant to the market. The Multi Commodity Exchange of India, controlled by Indian markets entrepreneur Jignesh Shah’s Financial Technologies group, is poised to start its own stock exchange.

MCX-SX will form part of a portfolio offering trade in interest rate futures, ETFs and fixed income. The exchange already offers trading in currency futures.

Joseph Massey, chief executive of MCX-SX, believes there is room for another stock exchange at a time when the government is moving towards financial deregulation and is pushing to give India’s rural population the same access to financial services as their urban counterparts.

Currently 1.4 per cent of India’s population participates in the capital markets compared with 40 to 45 per cent in developed countries. In addition more than 90 per cent of exchange trade is confined to only 10 cities in India, according to the MCX.

Mr Massey says the scope for growth in the types of products on offer is also large, adding that while SME’s, currency, bonds and derivatives make up to 80 per cent of trade in other markets, many of these asset classes are still only in their infancy in India.

“Until recently the asset class in the public domain was equities. Other products were non-existent. Now we have the opportunity to provide different shades of investment products,” says Mr Massey.

Analysts say the combination of greater competition between the exchanges and strong fundamentals is great news for investors.

“The last 10 years have been remarkable. We’ve gone from being one of the least efficient markets to one of the most efficient. There are now 7,000 stocks listed,” says Sukumar Rajah, managing director and chief investment officer for Asian equities at Franklin Templeton Investments in India.

Mr Rajah says at the moment less than 5 per cent of personal savings in India are invested in the market. But with Indian GDP expected to grow at between 7 to 9 per cent on average over the next five to 10 years, he says the outlook for India is good.

“With this type of growth there is room for companies to expand . . . so for both local and global investors, this market will continue to be interesting.”

Source: FT, 20.09.2009 by Mary Watkins

Filed under: Asia, Exchanges, India, News, BSE Bombay Stock Exchange, Derivatives, Deutsche Börse, Exchanges, Index, India, Jignesh Shah, MCX, NSE National Stock Exchange India, SENSEX, SGX Singapore Stock Exchange

Electronic Debt Trading in India, Celent Report

India’s debt markets have experienced rapid growth and along with that electronic trading also risen sharply, with the market growing at a CAGR over 75% since 2005.

India’s debt markets have experienced rapid growth and along with that electronic trading also risen sharply, with the market growing at a CAGR over 75% since 2005, according to a recent Celent report. In spite of being a late starter, India is expected to have around 80% share of debt transactions being conducted electronically by the end of 2009, making it competitive with the US and Japan, the world’s leading global debt markets. However, the Indian debt markets are small by international standards, constituting just about 1% of the global market, according to the new report, E-Trading in the Indian Debt Markets: Growth in the Downturn. Celent is a Boston-based financial research and consulting firm. Key findings of the report include:

India is one of the world’s leading emerging markets, growing at a rate of 5-6% even through a period of global economic downturn. The introduction of electronic trading has increased transparency and liquidity in the market. The CAGR for the government bond market has been nearly 79% since the introduction of electronic trading.

Electronic trading will continue to become more popular, and the role of voice-broking will decrease further. NDS-OM has already set the trend, and the exchanges and the interdealer brokers (e.g., ICAP) are following it with a greater emphasis on electronic trading.

The corporate bonds market is dwarfed by its government bond counterpart. Currently, the corporate side of the bond market accounts for only 8% of the overall debt market, while government securities account for as much as 92%. The government debt market has greater liquidity and depth, and this is expected to continue even after the success of NDS-OM, the electronic platform.

India’s retail market has failed to meet expectations. There had been high expectations for a rise in retail participation in the markets, especially from the exchanges. This has failed to materialize and both NSE and BSE have seen no trading in the segment. However, retail interest in debt funds is high because they are an attractive means of reducing volatility in the current economic climate. As much as Rs. 1.3 trillion has been mobilized in April-May 2009 by debt mutual funds, as opposed to an outgo of Rs. 285 billion in the previous financial year (i.e., April 2008 to March 2009).

A couple of the leading global IDBs have entered the market. However, the Indian market environment as it stands is not conducive to the entry and growth of IDBs due to the nature of the market and regulatory issues. But it is believed that the IDBs have an important contribution to make if the Indian market is to achieve its true potential by global standards, as they aid price discovery and improve access to large pools of liquidity while maintaining anonymity.

The derivatives market has suffered from regulatory hurdles and a lack of participation. It had seen high volumes for OTC interest rate swaps (IRS) until July 2008, but there has been a decline, and the turnover of IRS is only 30-35% of July 2008 levels. However, Celent believes that fixed income derivative products will increase in number and volume.

The Clearing Corporation of India (CCIL) has had a critical role to play in the growth of the industry. Its contribution has been vital in the success of the NDS-OM platform as well as the money markets for instruments such as collateralized borrowing and lending obligations (CBLOs). More innovative participants such as CCIL are required for the debt markets to succeed in the long run.

India’s retail market has failed to meet expectations. There had been high expectations for a rise in retail participation in the markets, especially from the exchanges. This has failed to materialize and both NSE and BSE have seen no trading in the segment. However, retail interest in debt funds is high because they are an attractive means of reducing volatility in the current economic climate. As much as Rs. 1.3 trillion has been mobilized in April-May 2009 by debt mutual funds, as opposed to an outgo of Rs. 285 billion in the previous financial year (i.e., April 2008 to March 2009).

NSE has created a niche in the debt markets. The wholesale debt market of NSE commands an 8% share of overall government debt trading. Similarly, it has a 46% share in 2009 (until June) in the corporate bond market. However, BSE is struggling in the government bond market and has a 16% share in the corporate bond market.

Source: Celente, Advanced Trading, 18.09.2009

Filed under: Asia, Exchanges, India, News, Trading Technology, BSE Bombay Stock Exchange, Debt, DMA Direct Market Access, Exchanges, Fixed Income, India, Market Analysis, NSE National Stock Exchange India

Investors turn underweight China and India

Portfolio managers’ optimism about China’s economy falls for the third month running, according to Merrill Lynch’s fund manager poll for September.

Confidence in China and India slumped this month, while optimism over the overall global economy held steady from August, according to Merrill Lynch’s survey of fund managers for September.

A net 35% of fund managers expect the Chinese economy to strengthen over the next year, down from 49% last month and a peak of 62% in June. Emerging market investors are now 9% underweight on China, after 13 months of being overweight. They have also gone from being around 5% overweight India in August to at least 25% underweight this month.

Yet confidence in the global economy remains strong, with 72% of investors expecting it to strengthen over the next year,    about the same as last month. But 72% also believe both growth and inflation will be below trend. Less than one-third of investors now see the global economy in recession compared to two-thirds only two months ago.

Despite the improving macro backdrop, investors have not increased their appetite for risk. Globally, cash levels increased in September, with average cash balances rising to 4.1% of total assets, compared with 3.7% in August, which had been the lowest level since July 2007. It was a similar story for global emerging market investors, with average cash balances rising to 4.1% from 3.5%.

In terms of global asset allocation, the proportion of investors overweight equities slipped to a net 27% from a net 34% in August. Investors lowered their allocations to eight out of 11 industry sectors. August’s tentative steps back to cyclical stocks were reversed. Panelists reduced their positions in materials, industrials and discretionary stocks.

Asset allocators now see equities as undervalued (net -4% against the net 1% overvalued last month). However, they continue to see bonds as overvalued, with net 38% against net 34% last month.

As for regional allocation, global emerging markets remain strongly overweight, but fell to 40% from 52% overweight. But asset allocators are the most confident they’ve been on Europe in 18 months. Only a net 1% of respondents is underweight the eurozone, down from 13% in August. That’s the most positive stance on the region since February 2008, when asset allocators held a slight overweight position.

Global inflation expectations over the next 12 months have dropped from a net 30% last month to a net 21%, helping explain how bonds are rallying despite growing economic optimism. A net 70% of investors still see higher short rates 12 months out.

“September’s jump in cash levels and lower equity exposure shows that investors’ risk appetite lags their confidence in the recovery,” says Gary Baker, head of European equity strategy at Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch Research.

Michael Hartnett, chief global equities strategist at Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch Research, adds: “Goldilocks is back in town. The consensus expects a global recovery, but expects it to be below trend and not inflationary.”

A total of 234 fund managers, managing a total of $667 billion, participated in the global survey from September 4-10. A total of 189 managers, managing $408 billion, participated in the regional surveys. The survey was conducted by Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch Research, with the help of market research company TNS.

Source: AsianInvestors, 18.09.2009 Jospeh Marsch

Filed under: China, India, News, Risk Management, Services, Asset Management, BoA-Merrill, China 中国, Fund Industry, India, Risk Management

Celent: More positive reviews for India shares

Celent is the latest to sing the praises of India’s stock market.

The Indian equity markets are showing signs of recovery, according to Celent, a Boston-based financial research and consulting firm. Although India’s equity market capitalisation is still some way off the 2007 high of $3.3 trillion, it is expected to exceed 2008 levels in 2009 at $1.9 trillion, the firm says in its latest report on India shares.

Celent is the latest to sing praises for India’s stock market. Earlier this month, Credit Suisse unveiled a new target of 17,000 for India’s Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark index (Sensex). In June, BNP Paribas recommended its clients to reduce their exposure to China, which it has lowered to neutral from overweight, and increase their allocations to India, where the bank remains overweight. BNP Paribas’ own target for the Sensex is 16,500. The Sensex closed at 15,160.24 on Friday.

The key findings of the Celent report include:

India is one of the main emerging equity markets. The country’s leading stock exchange, National Stock Exchange (NSE) is ranked third in terms of the number of equity trades of individual exchanges. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) is also one of the leading exchanges worldwide, and the Indian market continues to hold further promise, as the economy is expected to grow 5-6% even in the current economic downturn.

The NSE is expected to overtake the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in market capitalisation in 2009. Already far ahead in turnover, the NSE is expected to further its lead. It has already cornered the exchange-based debt markets and the equity derivatives business and become the exchange of choice in India.

The NSE is preferred by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), while retail investors, domestic brokers, and sub-brokers prefer the BSE. NSE turnover is two times that of the BSE because FIIs hold on to shares for a shorter period of time than their local counterparts.

India’s debt market is underdeveloped. In spite of growth, the Indian corporate debt market is far behind developed and emerging economies worldwide. At an expected turnover value of $70 billion in 2009, it is equal to less than 10% of the government debt market.

In the equity derivatives market, volatility has meant that the investors prefer to trade more in index derivatives because they are far more liquid than stock futures and options. Index futures and options now comprise 64% of the trading done in futures and options. Just like equities, the equity derivatives market has also recovered, and the turnover in the fiscal year 2010 is expected to be around $3 trillion, close to the figure in FY 2008. The growth in turnover and volume has made NSE one of the top 10 derivatives exchanges in the world. Having one of the highest growth rates in 2008 (56%), it is expected to do even better in the future. Interestingly, in spite of being more complex a product than cash equity, the equity derivatives market is quite popular with retail investors, and they had more than 50% of the market share consistently throughout the period of June 2008 to May 2009. This bodes well for the breadth of participation in the market.

The equity derivatives market is dominated by the NSE, due to the superior use of technology and better strategy. Also, the NSE has a high growth rate, and it is expected to break into the global top five by volume in the near future. In 2008, it had a trade volume of 590 million contracts and grew by 55.4% over the previous year. This made it the eighth largest derivatives exchange in the world.

Stock futures and options are not very liquid. The stock futures developed as the number of stocks traded has gone up from around 30 to 40 stocks to between 150 and 200. However, stock options are illiquid, except in the case of leading companies, meaning that a lot of transaction volume is driven by a few signatures. This situation could be worrisome in the long run, and there is certainly room for improvement.

Index futures and options dominate the NSE’s equity derivatives portfolio. Reasons for this include: recent volatility in the global markets, the participation of retail investors (comprising 53% of the turnover in the NSE in May 2009) in the derivatives market, and the fact that it is easier for investors to use index futures and options.

Currency futures have started promisingly. In the period between October 2008 and June 2009, the total volume traded on the NSE and MCX-SX was 132 million contracts, which compares favourably with 577 million exchange-traded currency futures globally in 2008. The combined monthly volume was above 29 million contracts for the two Indian exchanges.

Interest rate futures are expected to be reintroduced before the end of 2009. The Indian capital markets have been undergoing incremental reform, and once currency futures have established themselves, the Reserve Bank of India, the central bank, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), and the capital market regulator plan to establish new regulations and reintroduce interest rate futures.

For the interest rate futures market to succeed, banks should be allowed to trade. Futures failed miserably in 2003 because the banks were only allowed to hedge. As the main participants in these markets, banks should be allowed to trade and build up the demand-side of the market.

Volatility is high, and a product such as NSE’s volatility index would be useful. NSE has come out with a volatility index, which is a market-wide index. At present, it is not available for trading. However, it is important that NSE soon introduce trading in an index because this will be very useful for market modelling and will help investors cope with the uncertain capital markets better.

Foreign institutional investment has begun to reverse its decline in recent months. FII drives the Indian equity markets. There is a high correlation of0.38 between the between the performance of the Sensex and FII over the period of January 2004 and May 2009, and it had been affected by the recent crisis. However, April and May 2009 have been the first months with positive net monthly investment in equity in more than a year. There are signs that these investors are rediscovering their faith in Indian equity markets. The share of Asian FIIs has risen, comprising 25% of all the registered FIIs in India, closely following the US, which has 29%.

The role of domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and the retail investors is becoming more prominent in the Indian markets.

Retail investment will grow as technology improves and reach increases. While it may be some time before the retail investors become the main driver of the markets, they are becoming stronger, and the advent of exchanges such as the NSE and recently, MCX-SX will improve the possibility of domestic savings being invested in capital markets.

Indian capital markets are advanced technologically but need to continuously improve to be competitive internationally. Strategic partnerships with the world’s leading exchanges and an understanding of the importance of technology to improve both price and speed, is crucial. The exchanges need to work continuously to ensure they remain attractive destinations for international capital.

Supervision and innovation in the capital markets can be improved. Sebi has done a great job in fostering the rapid development of Indian capital markets. However, market manipulations need to be dealt with severely, and Sebi needs to play a more active role. Due to the late development of the Indian market, the regulator has so far been prudent, but as the Indian markets get more globalised and mature, Sebi could introduce innovations such as alternative trading venues to add breadth to and modernise the Indian capital markets sooner than would have been possible a decade ago.

Market-making should be allowed to provide greater depth and liquidity to the markets. Presently, market-making is not permitted by Sebi, possibly because it might be very complicated to monitor. However, it is an internationally accepted practice that is essential for the development of the markets, and Sebi should introduce it sooner rather than later.

Source:AsianInvestor.net,10.08.2009  Rita Raagas De Ramos

Filed under: Asia, Exchanges, India, News, BSE Bombay Stock Exchange, Equity, Exchanges, Futures and Options, India, MCX, NSE National Stock Exchange India, SEBI Securities Exchange Board of India, SENSEX

‘Bubble-Mania’ in Shanghai Spreads to Global Markets

The S&P-500 Index, a global bellwether for the world stock markets, extended its best five-month winning streak since 1938, by advancing through the psychological 1,000-level, and is up nearly 50% from its 12-year low set on March 10th. The S&P-500 gained 7.4% in July, its best monthly performance since 1997, even as average earnings per-share tumbled -32% and sales slid -16% from a year ago.

Industrial commodities, often viewed as barometers for global economic trends, have also moved sharply higher. So far this year, copper has soared by +96%, nickel is up 62%, and zinc is +50% higher. China, which buys two-thirds of the world’s seaborne iron ore shipments, boosted imports 30% in the first seven-months of this year to 353-million tons, lifting its spot price to $91 /ton, up from $60 per ton in February. Crude oil rose above $71 /barrel this week, doubling in value since December.

In hindsight, while the “Group of Seven” (G-7) economies in North America, Europe, and Japan, were experiencing the most severe economic contractions since the Great Depression of the 1930’s, coupled with unemployment rates ratcheting upward to multi-decade highs, the emerging economic giant – China – was demonstrating its prowess, with the most ambitious stimulus plan the world has ever seen, to rescue its juggernaut economy from the brink of social disaster and unrest.

In a little more than nine months, the pendulum of investor sentiment in Asia has swung from the extreme of terrifying panic and fear, to the opposite side of the emotional spectrum – hope and unbridled greed. The Shanghai stock market index has surged +90% this year, owing its good fortune to 1.2-trillion of bank loans clandestinely funneled into the stock market by brokerage firms, leaving it awash with yuan and lifting share prices above what economic reality can support.

China’s ruling Politburo is demonstrating to the world its command and control over its stock market and economy. Over the past few years, Beijing has proven its ability to either massively deflate a stock market bubble, as seen in 2008, and the wizardry to re-inflate a stock market bubble this year. Beijing is following the Greenspan – Bernanke blueprints, – turning to massive money printing to re-inflate bubbles in asset markets, in order to jump start an economy from the doldrums, or in this latest case, from the grip of the Great Recession.

A relatively healthy banking system enabled the Chinese central bank to work its magic. China’s M2 money supply is growing at a record +28.5% annualized rate, and the money supply surge is coinciding with big rallies in stocks and property, spilling over into neighboring Hong Kong. State-controlled Chinese banks extended 7.4-trillion yuan ($1.2-trillion) of new loans in the first half of this year, equal to 25% of China’s entire economy – helping to fuel a powerful Shanghai red-chip rally.

One of the beneficiaries of the explosive growth of the Chinese money supply is the Shanghai gold market, which is trading near 6,600-yuan /ounce, and is also tracking powerful rallies in industrial commodities. China is poised to overtake India as the world’s top gold consumer this year, and there is speculation that Beijing will quietly buy the gold which the IMF wants to sell in the years ahead.

China, the world’s biggest gold mining nation, is seeking to boost gold output by 3% to 290-tons this year, far less than the 400-tons it consumed last year. Thus, China could become an even bigger importer of the yellow metal in the months ahead, helping to cushion inevitable corrections in the gold market. Given the trade-off between expanding growth and fighting asset-price inflation, Shanghai traders are betting that Beijing will opt to blow even bigger bubbles in asset markets.

Industrial Commodities Eyeing Shanghai

China’s super-easy monetary policy is designed to offset the damage to its export-dependent regions, which are suffering from the collapse in global trade. Beijing is also spending 4-trillion yuan on infrastructure projects, equal to roughly 15% of its economic output per year, to create jobs and stoke economic growth. So it was of great interest to global traders, when the Shanghai red-chips suddenly plunged -5% on July 29th, the biggest daily loss in eight-months, on rumors that Beijing would curb bank lending in the second half of this year.

The Shanghai index is prone to sudden shake-outs, with the index trading at 35-times earnings, and Shenzhen’s small-cap shares trading at 45-times earnings. The Shanghai red-chip index has evolved into the locomotive for key industrial commodities, such as crude oil, base metals, and rubber. Industrial commodities rebounded from a nasty one-day shake-out on July 29th, after the People’s Bank of China wasted little time in denying rumors swirling in the media that it was considering the idea of enforcing quotas on bank loans.

The prospects for Chinese corporate earnings growth are of critical importance, with the Shanghai stock index flying higher in bubble territory. Large-scale industrial companies in 22 Chinese provinces saw their profits decline -21.2% in the first half to 894.14 billion yuan, but the decline rate was less from the first quarter’s 32% slide, and nowadays, “less bad,” means signs of recovery.

The most optimistic scenario calls for Chinese industrial profits to rebound to an annualized growth rate of +30% in the fourth quarter, due to the government’s massive stimulus. China’s Bank of Communications predicts the economy’s growth rate will accelerate to a pace of +9% in the third-quarter and +9.8% in the fourth-quarter. China’s crude steel output would surely top 500-million tons this year, equaling 40% of the world’s total production.

Korea Joins Alignment of B-R-I-C-K

Upbeat markets in China are helping underpin the BRIC nations, including Brazil, India, and Russia, which have the four best performing stock markets this year. Brazil’s Bovespa Index is up 79%, India’s Sensex Index is up 63%, and Russia’s RTS Index has gained 62-percent. The S&P-500 Index by comparison, is up 9.4% this year, while Japan’s Nikkei-225 index is up 7.5-percent.

One could add Korea to the alignment of B-R-I-C-K stars, since the Kospi Index has rebounded by 72% above its November low, emerging as the most favored market among global investors. With growing appetites for risky assets, global investors have rushed to snatch up Korean Kospi shares, particularly those in the information technology (IT) and the auto sectors. Foreigners were net buyers of $4.7 of Korean stocks in July, much larger than net-purchases of $2.6-billion of stocks in Taiwan, $1.9-billion shares in India, and $1.29 billion shares in South Africa.

“Money has no motherland, financiers are without patriotism and without decency, – their sole object is gain,” observed Napoleon Bonaparte. Highlighting the fickle nature of speculators, – foreigners bought a record $18-billion of Korean securities in the second-quarter of this year, or 24-times more than $750 million the previous quarter. In the third and fourth quarters of 2008, foreigners sold $17.9-billion and $17.4-billion, respectively, at the height of the global financial turmoil.

Foreign buying of Korean equities knocked the US-dollar 28% lower against the Korean-won, and the Japanese yen has tumbled 20% to 12.8-won, since March 10th, when global stock markets bottomed out. “Carry traders” are active in Seoul, and profiting from a stronger won. In a world where G-7 central banks are pegging rates at record low levels, it does not take much imagination to envision the Federal Reserve, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan underwriting rallies in the emerging currencies of Brazil, Russia, India, and Korea, just as Tokyo pumped massive liquidity straight into New Zealand and Australian dollars during its flirtation with the hallucinogenic drug – “Quantitative Easing” (QE) between 2001 and 2006.

Virtuous Cycle Swings in the Kremlin’s Favor

The resilience of China’s economy has rekindled the de-coupling debate, which hinges on the premise that the emerging economies in Brazil, Russia, India, China, (BRIC) can grow in spite of a declining G-7 economies. The so-called BRIC countries accounted for half of global growth in 2008 – China alone accounted for a quarter, and Brazil, India, and Russia combined equaled another quarter. Furthermore, the IMF notes that BRIC “accounted for more than 90% of the rise in consumption of energy products and metals, and 80% of grains since 2002.”

The virtuous cycle of events are now swinging back in the Kremlin’s favor, as global speculators flock back into hard-hit resource shares trading in Moscow. Russia’s central bank cut its main interest rates for the fourth time in less than three-months, after Moscow said the local economy contracted an annual 10.2% in the January-May period. Bank Rossii lowered the refinancing rate a half-point to 11% following on initial reduction on April 24th and two further cuts on May 13th and June 5th.

The Russian rouble has rebounded 16% against the US-dollar, since the first quarter, as Urals blend crude oil rebounded towards $70 a barrel, and base metals surged higher, boosting demand for Russia’s currency, a world leader in commodity exports. Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia, and supplies a quarter of Europe’s natural gas needs. Russia is also the world’s largest nickel and palladium miner, the second largest platinum miner, and the fourth-largest iron ore miner, behind Brazil, Australia, and India.

After reaching a record high of $597-billion last August, Moscow’s foreign currency reserves were dramatically depleted in the second-half of 2008, as the central bank spent more than $200-billion supporting the Russian rouble and bolstering the capital position of domestic banks. This year’s rebound in Urals blend crude oil has improved the Kremlin’s coffers, to the tune of $404-billion today. China, the world’s second-largest oil guzzler, imported 3.83-million barrels per day in July, or 25% more than a year earlier, the fastest pace in nearly two-years.

The BRIC nations are rethinking how their US-dollar currency reserves are managed, underlining a power shift from the United States, which spawned the global financial crisis. Russian chief Dmitry Medvedev has repeatedly questioned the US-dollar’s future as a global reserve currency. China is allowing companies in its southern provinces of Yunnan and Guangxi to use yuan to settle cross-border trade with Hong Kong and Southeast Asia to reduce exposure to the US-dollar.

India Weathers the “Great Recession”

Reserve Bank of India chief Duvvuri Subbarao says India’s modest dependence on exports will help Asia’s third largest economy, to weather the “Great Recession” and even stage a modest recovery later this year. Even during the depths of the October massacre in the Bombay Sensex Index, India managed to maintain a 5.3% growth rate in the fourth quarter, and India’s banking system had virtually no exposure to any kind of toxic asset, manufactured in the United States.

India’s factory output contracted by a slim 0.25% in January, the first decline this decade, and export earnings had fallen for six straight months. In January exports were 16% lower from a year earlier tumbling to $12.3-billion. So the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) scrambled to rescue the Bombay stock market, by slashing its lending rates six times from September thru April, by a total of 425-basis points.

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The Indian Sensex index began to decouple from Wall Street and Tokyo in early May, after it rallied 14% for its biggest weekly gain since 1992, when Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh won a second term. Bombay stocks soared with enthusiasm at the prospect that Singh’s new government, shorn of Communists, would privatize up to $20-billion of state-owned assets, increase foreign investment in highly profitable crown jewel companies, begin deregulation of banking and financial services, and gut restrictions on the closing of factories.

India’s factory sector, measured by the Purchasing Mgr’s Index, held strongly at a reading of 55.3 in July, or 2-points higher than China’s, signaling a strong industrial recovery in the second half of this year. If the decoupling of China, India, Russia, and Brazil becomes a reality, it could be good for the developed G-7 nations, as growing wealth in BRIC nations could, in theory, increase demand for goods made in battered nations like Japan, Germany, and the United States.

A decoupling between the emerging BRICK nations and the more developed G-7 economies would mean a huge shift in the global financial markets, away from the traditional pattern of emerging markets dancing to the tune of G-7 economies, which still account for 60% of global GDP. Instead, increasing independence could lead to a greater sphere of influence of the emerging giants, led by Beijing.

In the United States, Fed chief Bernanke is pumping a “bailout bubble” for Wall Street, similar to the policies of his mentor “Easy” Al Greenspan, who inflated the housing bubble, the sub-prime debt bubble, and the high-tech bubble. It’s a never ending cycle of boom-and-busts of bubbles, engineered by central banks. The revival of the “Commodity Super Cycle,” might already be in motion, and if a global economic recovery gains traction, soaring input costs would begin to crimp the profit margins of the giant Asian industrialists.

All the liquidity that’s been unleashed into the global banking system would play havoc with accelerating inflation. History shows that central banks won’t pre-empt inflation by withdrawing liquidity early. Instead, the money printers tend to inflate bubbles to dangerous proportions. Add to the mix, the vast leverage of the US-dollar and Japanese yen carry trades, it’s going to be a wild ride for the US Treasury bond market, which is increasingly dependent upon the whims of BRICK.

Source: SeekingAlpha, 05.08.2009 by Gary Dorsch

Filed under: Asia, Banking, Brazil, China, Exchanges, India, Korea, News, Risk Management, Services, Black Swan, BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, China 中国, Credit Crisis, Currency Crisis, Economic Crisis, Emerging Markets, Exchanges, Financial Crisis, Index, India, Korea, KRX Kores Stock Exchange, Risk Management, Russia, SENSEX, Social Crisis, SSE Shanghai Stock Exchange