FiNETIK – Asia and Latin America – Market News Network

Asia and Latin America News Network focusing on Financial Markets, Energy, Environment, Commodity and Risk, Trading and Data Management

Mexico – Durable, Consistent and Undervalued

Since global markets unraveled back in 2008 we’ve again been reminded that even developed economies can have a tough time dealing with crisis (think TARP, bailouts, recessions and policy restructurings). In some cases, seemingly simple issues like inflation can be the main reason international investors turn away. However, in looking at mid-tier countries within emerging markets, one exception is Mexico.

The Mexican peso, for example, has appreciated by nearly 20 percent since the peak recession level of two years ago. In addition to a more predictable and forecastable currency, Mexico enjoys direct investment from both the United States and China. Many experts agree that this flow of capital helped Mexico reach a 4 percent annual gross domestic product growth rate in 2011.

The peso’s solid gains can be attributed to a variety of factors, but are directly correlated to market statements made by U.S. banking and government officials. Interest rate stability, for example, ensures the peso’s projected outlook by hedging its value with that of the dollar as well as Mexico’s import-export relationship with the U.S. Most recently, on the day the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain its low interest rate program through 2014, the peso rose 0.6 percent, to $13.0190 per U.S. dollar. That marked a 7 percent climb for the month of January.

From an investment, trading and trade relations perspective, Mexico boasts free-trade agreements in which tariffs are lower than many countries. So low, in fact, that nearly 90 percent of all its exports are essentially duty free. For example, Mexican goods are exported duty-free to the U.S., Canada, Europe, Latin America and Japan. This past week, Mexico announced a preliminary trade surplus of $7.7 million for December 2011. Most other countries, on the other hand, trade with a much smaller surplus if not deficit. Investors keen on taking advantage of this advantage can use the iShares MSCI Mexico Index.

In fixed income, Mexican notes return more than the average of other emerging market debt. What’s more, Mexico correlates better with the U.S. than other high profile emerging markets like Brazil, China or Russia.

Mexico has proven that it is able to withstand both global and internal drags on its economy while still holding its position among the advanced emerging markets community such as Brazil, Czech Republic, Hungary, Malaysia, Poland, South Africa, Taiwan and Turkey.

Taking a closer look at the value to an individual or institutional investor, Latin America generally – and Mexico specifically – continues to hold and return value better than other emerging markets. Debt and inflation from Europe more closely impact Russia, India and China, for example, whereas Mexico and LatAm are more closely tied to the U.S., where the economy is slowly rebounding

Mexico vs. other LatAm hotspots  ….read full article at   Tabb Forum

Source: Tabb Froum, Dan Watskin, 02.02.2012

Filed under: BMV - Mexico, Latin America, Mexico, News, , , , , , , ,

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