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Brazil: Full and Inconclusive Agenda – November 2010- IXE BANIF – Monthly Analysis

Invisible hand might move the US market

For November, we expect no relevant data coming from the economic indicators in Europe or in the US. One of the main drivers of the month, however, should come from the FED in its meeting on the 2nd and 3rd. We expect immediate action announced in the form of purchases of securities in the financial market, irrigating it by around US$500bn in six months. Last month, deflation was the biggest fear but since then, rumors of FED actions have turned these fears into expectation of inflation. The first practical signs of this change happened at the end of October, when the Treasury sold US$10bn of 5-yr Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) with negative yield, indicating that investors are already betting on increasing inflation. The full effects of a government-induced inflation are uncertain, but we believe that the initial sentiment on such an announcement would be positive.

Mixed drivers for Brazil

We believe investors will closely monitor six main factors in November that should affect the local market: 1) The performance of foreign markets; 2) the end of the bad feeling on Petrobras’ capital increase; 3) the end of the elections; 4) companies 3Q earnings; 5) the stability of Brazil’s FX and 6) the domestic economy. The first three items are likely to be positive. Items 4 and 5 can be mixed and bring volatility and item 6 is likely to be seen negatively. Given these mixed drivers, we foresee the same scenario we projected for October: the market moving sideways with volatility.

We have heavily changed our suggested portfolio again, as we did last month, with the inclusion of Petrobras and Lojas Renner (with weights of 20% and 5%, respectively). We have reduced weights on Guararapes, Telesp and Tractebel (both from 10% to 5%) and have withdrawn Itaú and OGX.

Brazilian Economic Indicators Published in November Weaker

We see the end of elections as positive, as it will leave a great source of stress behind and, independent to the outcome, differences between the two candidates are likely to have practical effects only in the medium term. The most immediate potential stress that can arise after the elections result is likely the announcement of names in the top positions of the new government.

The appreciation of the Real since the Petrobras capital increase stressed the government and other economic agents until the government decided to increase IOF taxation sequentially, first from 2% to 4% and then to 6%. First indications show stability of the FX, but the government will certainly monitor to see if these measures were sufficient to reach long lasting stability. We foresee further action from the Government should the Real start to appreciate again.

In economic terms, we believe that Brazil’s November indicators, published in November, should be weaker than those published for a long stretch of months. The reason for this view is our expectation for three indicators: 1) retail sales; 2) industrial production and 3) activity index (Central Bank measure that indicates GDP performance and precedes its release). We foresee negative figures for the first two and nearly zero for the third.

Source: Banif-IXE, 01.11.2010

Filed under: BM&FBOVESPA, Brazil, Exchanges, Latin America, News, Services, , , , , , , , ,

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